Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Updating a Note Posted in December 2015 on Yearend Seasonality of EUR/USD
December 13, 2017
In the early years after the United States adopted flexible dollar exchange rates in March 1973, the U.S. currency an astonishingly consistent pattern of depreciation against the mark during the second half of each December, dropping in thirteen out of fourteen years in one stretch. Like the euro now, the mark was then Europe’s predominant […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of Iceland
December 13, 2017
Iceland’s Monetary Policy Committee had implemented cuts of its seven-day term interest rate of 50 basis points in August 2016 and of 25 basis points each earlier this year in May, June and October. The collective decline of 125 basis points exactly reversed hikes during 2015, leaving the level at 4.25%. The statement released today […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Preview
December 13, 2017
The Fed announcement and new macroeconomic forecast will be announced at 19:00 GMT (14:00 EST) today. Previous forecasts were published in September. The federal funds rate will almost surely get raised by 25 basis points to 1.25-1.50%, marking the fourth such move since the meeting held a year ago. Chair Yellen will preside over her […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Slips and Stocks Rise Ahead of Last FOMC Decision of the Yellen Era
December 13, 2017
The dollar fell overnight by 0.7% against the kiwi, 0.6% versus the Aussie dollar, 0.4% relative to sterling, 0.3% vis-a-vis the yen and 0.1% against the euro, Swiss franc and loonie. Core U.S. CPI inflation in November was 0.1 percentage point less than forecast with a rise of 0.1% from October and a 1.7% 12-month […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Eye on The Fed, Alabama, and Some Data Releases
December 12, 2017
The Federal Open Market Committee begins a 2-day policy review that almost surely will lead to the third interest rate hike of 2017. The first two moves were enacted in March and June. This will be the final FOMC meeting presided over by Janet Yellen. A press conference is scheduled tomorrow, and new forecasts will […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Markets React Calmly to Terrorist Explosion in NYC
December 11, 2017
A bomb carried by Bangladeshi suicide bomber seems to have exploded prematurely at the New York Port Authority bus terminal at around 07:30 am this morning, producing only 3 minor injuries other than to the Terrorist assailant. Compared to Friday closing levels, the dollar is down 1.2% versus the kiwi, 0.6% relative to the yen, […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
December 8, 2017
Central Banks: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England lead a long list of central banks holding their final monetary policy reviews of 2017. Other countries on the list are Switzerland, Russia, Norway, Iceland, Indonesia, Ukraine, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Turkey and Colombia. Yellen of the Fed, Kuroda of the Bank of Japan, Draghi of the […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Strong U.S., Japanese, Chinese, French and Canadian Data Reported and Brexit Talks Take a Step Forward
December 8, 2017
There have been some impressive stock market advances overnight in Asia (Japan 1.4%, Hong Kong 1.7%, Singapore 1.1%, and India 0.9) and Europe (Italy 1.3%, Germany 0.9%, Spain 0.8% and the U.K. 0.7%). The S&P is 0.4% firmer in early U.S. trading. The dollar is closing out the week on a high note, having risen […] More
Central Bank Watch
National Bank of Serbia
December 7, 2017
Serbia’s central bank executive board decided not to change its key policy rate which has been at 3.5% for the past two months. Such had been cut 275 basis points in the final eight months of 2013, 150 bps in 2014, 350 bps in 2015 and 50 basis points in 2016. This year’s only change […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Scramble to Tie Up Loose Ends
December 7, 2017
Politicians around the world are in a rush to complete unfinished business. Republicans in the U.S. House and Senate are negotiating a compromise of their separate bills to get a law signed before the Christmas recess. The process is proceeding informally and without Democratic Party involvement to compress the timetable. A risk continues that the […] More
