Updating a Note Posted in December 2015 on Yearend Seasonality of EUR/USD

December 13, 2017

In the early years after the United States adopted flexible dollar exchange rates in March 1973, the U.S. currency an astonishingly consistent pattern of depreciation against the mark during the second half of each December, dropping in thirteen out of fourteen years in one stretch. Like the euro now, the  mark was then Europe’s predominant currency, setting the tone for other monies in the region. An article I posted on December 28, 2015 documents this phenomenon in some detail. Also observed in that update is the fact that this pattern had become far less consistent subsequently. From the early days, this propensity to be weak in late December tended to be reversed at the start of January, and that early-year strength more recently had continued to be observed more consistent than weakness in late December.

Two more years of data, 2015 and 2016, are now available since the update in late 2015 was written.

  • In 2015, the dollar rose 0.5% against the euro between mid-December and yearend but then fell 0.4% between the start of January and January 15, 2016. This see-sawed movement is opposite in direction to what occurred so often in the 1970s and 1980s.
  • Last year, the dollar fell by 1.1% against the euro each both in the second half of December and the first half of January 2017.  This too failed to conform to the historically most prevalent result. While weakness in late December returned to the dollar, it failed to reverse direction immediately after the calendar year had turned.

Copyright 2017, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.




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