Central Bank Watch
Key Mexican Central Bank Rate Left at 4.5% as Expected
March 4, 2011
After 375 basis points of reduction from 8.25% to 4.5% during the first seven months of 2009, the benchmark Bank of Mexico interest rate has not been changed since July 2009. Analysts are not expecting an increase until late 3Q or the fourth quarter of this year. The statements of policymakers have become less dovish. […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
March 4, 2011
Central Bank interest rate meetings will be held next week in New Zealand, Thailand, Britain, South Korea and Peru. EU leaders are holding a summit at the end of the week. Japan is releasing the following data: revised GDP, machinery orders, the index of leading economic indicators, money and credit growth, the current account and […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
The Euro, Oil and March
March 4, 2011
Investors learned several important facts this past week. It’s going to take more than Middle Eastern unrest, a healthier U.S. labor market and rising Treasury yields to forge a stronger dollar. The U.S. currency isn’t depreciating across the board, but my two favorite barometers of dollar sentiment, EUR/USD and gold, touched 1.4000 for the first […] More
Deeper Analysis
U.S. Labor Market Trends
March 4, 2011
The 192K rise of nonfarm payroll employment last month was merely 4K below the consensus forecast but about 30K under whisper numbers engendered by the ADP private job creation estimate released two days ago. Revisions to December and January figures resulted in 58K more jobs than estimated a month ago, so the level of employment […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank Indonesia: No Follow-Up Rate Hike Yet
March 4, 2011
Indonesian monetary authorities implemented their first rate hike last month since October 2008, a 25-basis point increase to 6.75%. There had previously been 17 consecutive monthly meetings without a policy change, and that was the result of this month’s meeting as well, the Board of Governors reported today. The rate increase in February followed tighter […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
March 2011 Jobs Day
March 4, 2011
Investors are looking for U.S. non-farm jobs to have advanced about 200K in February, which which would cap off a week with several encouraging labor market and other U.S. economic indications. Note that forecasters were overly optimistic in January and December. The unemployment rate may have ticked back higher but only by a small amount. […] More
