FOMC preview

FOMC Preview

May 3, 2017

Today’s FOMC statement following the U.S. monetary committee’s third meeting of 2017 will be released at 18:00 GMT (14:00 EDT) and not followed by a press conference except in the very unlikely event that the federal funds rate target 0.75-1.0% is raised further. There have been three increases of 25 basis points each in the […] More

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March 15, 2017

Over the past six weeks since the last FOMC policy announcement on February 1, the dollar has appreciated marginally more than 1.0% against the euro and yen, and the 10-year Treasury yield is advanced 9 basis points. Whereas these changes tighten monetary conditions, a 9% net decline in oil prices and a 5% rise in […] More

FOMC Preview

December 14, 2016

The last FOMC meeting occurred right before the U.S. election result heard round the world. Trump’s unanticipated victory and the broad-based policy changes that he intends to pursue have also produced unexpected market moves. Stocks are sharply higher. Sovereign debt yields have risen even more dramatically. The dollar has rallied especially against the yen. Oil […] More

FOMC Preview

November 2, 2016

This week’s FOMC meeting will culminate with a released statement from the committee at 14:00 EDT from Washington (18:00 GMT). Monetary officials are not issuing new forecasts this time, nor will the meeting be followed by a press conference. The FOMC is not expected to change the 0.25-0.50% federal funds target range, in effect now […] More

FOMC Preview

September 21, 2016

Since the last FOMC statement on July 27, the dollar, share prices and the 10-year Treasury price have fallen. The Treasury yield and price of oil have climbed. Investors await the FOMC statement at 18:00 GMT today, which is to be accompanied by new forecasts and followed by a Janet Yellen press conference at 18:30 […] More

FOMC Preview

June 14, 2016

The fourth FOMC meeting of 2016 began today and will commence on Wednesday.  A statement will be released at 18:00 GMT along with new forecasts of growth, unemployment, the path of the interest rates, and inflation.  Not long ago, Fed officials led people to believe that a rate increase at this meeting would be very […] More

FOMC Preview

July 29, 2015

The last FOMC meeting on June 16-17 upgraded growth on improved household consumption, spoke of continuing progress on the mandates to maximize employment and secure a 2.0% inflation target, but decided that more evidence of sustained growth and higher inflation are needed before beginning to normalize the federal funds rate.  Energy and the dollar, two […] More

FOMC Preview

January 28, 2015

This week’s FOMC meeting marks the end of the first year with Janet Yellen as Fed Chairperson.  A change in policy settings is not foreseen, and the market consensus continues to anticipate an initial rate hike happening around the middle of this year.  One new element in thinking could be the appreciation of the dollar, […] More

FOMC Preview

December 17, 2014

In the seven weeks since the late October FOMC meeting, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil has plunged 32.7%, and the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen by 25 more basis points.  Consumer prices in the five months since mid-2014 contracted 0.7% at an annualized rate, and core CPI rose only 1.1% annualized, which is […] More

FOMC Preview: How Markets Were Guided Before the Last Rate Normalization

September 16, 2014

Fed officials have already prepared investors to expect a change in forward policy guidance language that will steer markets to an initial Fed funds rate hike around next March or April.  Rate normalization will then commence, by which is meant the transformation of policy from the current stance that promotes faster economic growth and higher […] More