FOMC preview

FOMC Preview

December 11, 2019

The FOMC will reveal its decisions later today from its final scheduled review of U.S. monetary policy in 2019. Financial markets in advance have been marking time ahead of the revelations of any policy action today, when interest rates are likely to be moved next and in what direction, and what factors are currently attracting […] More

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October 30, 2019

Today’s FOMC statement will be released in just under two hours. Analysts are widely looking for a third straight 25-basis point cut of the federal funds target to 1.50-1.75 percent. Six weeks ago right after the second consecutive reduction, they had been less confident than now that a cut would be agreed upon at today’s […] More

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September 18, 2019

In the seven weeks since the Federal Open Market Committee authorized the first federal funds target decline since December 2008, the 10-year treasury yield had dropped 27 basis points on balance, but there has been scant net change in EUR/USD, dollar/yen, U.S. share prices or the price of oil. The rate reduction on July 31 […] More

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July 31, 2019

In the six weeks since the last scheduled FOMC meeting, the dollar has edged up 0.2% against the yen and 0.8% versus the euro. It’s been a period in which Fed officials have prepared markets rhetorically to expect an interest rate cut today, so it’s somewhat surprising that the 10-year Treasury yield is now only […] More

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June 19, 2019

After meeting last time seven weeks ago, the Federal Open Market Committee upgraded its assessment of economic growth, called the U.S. labor market strong, maintained the federal funds target range at 2.25-2.50%, and also kept the buzzword “patient” in describing its predisposition toward future adjustments of the policy stance. In rhetoric from Chairman Powell and […] More

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May 1, 2019

At the previous review of U.S. monetary policy on March 20, members of the Federal Open Market Committee modified their forward guidance on interest rates, eliminating each of the likely two hikes in 2019 that had been signaled at the final 2018 FOMC meeting in December. m date to be mentioned at this time. A […] More

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March 20, 2019

Over the seven weeks since the last FOMC meeting, the dollar and price of oil have strengthened. Share prices recovered additionally, but the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen back 13 basis points. Forward guidance in the January 30th statement was less hawkish, deleting the previous assertion that further gradual increases in the target interest rate […] More

FOMC Preview

January 30, 2019

The first rule of Federal Reserve chairmen when wearing their communicator-in-chief hat is to do no harm.┬áChairman Powell failed that test at December’s press conference by placing a very positive spin on U.S. economic trends and appearing not to back away from a baseline expectation that the a couple more interest rate hikes in 2019 […] More

FOMC Preview

December 19, 2018

It’s been a very eventful period in the market during the 6-week FOMC cycle since the early November policy meeting, but notably the dollar only slipped 0.25% against the euro on balance. Outside of this oasis of stability, however, the ten-year Treasury yield is now 42 basis points lower than then, and the Dow Jones […] More

FOMC Preview

November 8, 2018

FOMC policy has become an epitome of predictability in rate-rising cycles. For decades, the Fed didn’t even announce policy changes, and it could take some time to discern that one had occurred by watching open market operations and determining behavior that couldn’t be explained by seasonal and other special factors. Policymakers have come to believe […] More

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