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New Overnight Developments Abroad – Daily Update

A Dive in German Factory Orders, A Cut in Indian Interest Rates, and Still No Resolution on Brexit

April 4, 2019

German factory orders, which had been expected to edge marginally higher, instead plunged 4.2% in February following a 2.1% drop in January that left the combined January-February average 3.7% lower than the 4Q mean and February’s level 8.4% below a year earlier. Export orders sank 6.0% and domestic demand for capital goods, a leading indicator […] More

Dollar Eased but Share Prices and Sovereign Debt Yields Rose Overnight

April 3, 2019

The dollar slipped 0.4% against the euro and 0.2% relative to the yen, loonie, yuan, and Swiss franc. Larger dollar drops of 0.8% and 0.6% occurred versus the Australian and New Zealand dollars, and a 0.1% uptick happened versus the yen. Share prices in the Pacific Rim strengthened 1.2% in China, Hong Kong and South […] More

U.K. in Greater Danger of a No Deal Brexit

April 2, 2019

The British House of Commons still cannot find sufficient agreement on the terms of withdrawing from the EU. Faced with binary scenarios of withdrawal without a deal or a lengthy delay in leaving, the first option is looking more and more likely. The 10-year British gilt yield dropped five basis points in response overnight, but […] More

Stocks and Sovereign Debt Yields Up on Better-than-Expected Chinese and British Manufacturing Data

April 1, 2019

This is not an April Fool’s joke. China’s NBS manufacturing purchasing managers index climbed 1.3 points to a 6-month high of 50.5 in March from February’s 3-year low, while the Caixin-compiled Chinese manufacturing PMI reading of 50.8 constituted an 8-month high. Also, the NBS nonmanufacturing PMI rose 0.5 points to a 6-month high as well […] More

Quarter-End Finds Focus on Brexit, Sino-U.S. Trade Talks and a Data Shower

March 29, 2019

Today was to have been Brexit Day, but it appears the Prime Minister May’s plan will be defeated in parliament for a third time. More confusion ahead. The United States and Chinese trade talks haven’t yet sealed a deal, but one seems to be getting a lot closer. Many pundits on such matters doubt it […] More

Weaker Turkish, South African and British Currencies

March 28, 2019

The Turkish lira slumped 5% against the dollar overnight when Turkish reserves data showed a large drop from previous intervention to support that currency. Still no word from the South African Reserve Bank’s monetary policy review, but analysts aren’t anticipating a rate hike. However, there is concern ahead of Moody’s sovereign debt call on South […] More

Big Reaction in New Zealand Financial Markets to Downbeat Central Bank Statement

March 27, 2019

The kiwi dropped 1.4% overnight. New Zealand’s 10-year sovereign debt yield slumped 11 basis points, whole share prices in that market rose 1.6%. A statement released after a regular monetary policy review that left the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s official cash rate unchanged at 1.75% paints a downbeat economic outlook not limited to the […] More

Share Prices and Sovereign Debt Yields Rebound… Brexit Situation Remains Muddled

March 26, 2019

In futures trading, the 10-year treasury yield rose five basis points to 2.44%. The 10-year German bund and Japanese JGB yield firmed two bps, while their British counterpart is 3 basis points firmer. Share prices rebounded 2.2% in Japan, 1.1% in India, 0.9% in Indonesia, 0.8% in Taiwanand 0.6% in Singapore. European equity markets are […] More

Several Reassuring Developments

March 25, 2019

Last Friday had been a brutally difficult day in financial markets after the U.S. 3-month T-bill rate moved above the 10-year Treasury note yield for the first time since the Great Recession. Monday has seen reassuring news on several fronts but not before share prices in the Pacific Rim tumbled 3.0% in Japan, 2.3% in […] More

A Fresh Wave of Risk Aversion

March 22, 2019

There’s been a big move into safe assets, reflecting three developments since Wednesday: The Fed’s decision was more dovish than expected, putting interest rate normalization on hold for all of 2019 and ending the balance sheet rundown after September. EU leaders put Britain on a short leash to decide on its Brexit plan. While March […] More

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