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New Overnight Developments Abroad – Daily Update

Unsettling Geopolitical News Over the Weekend and Some Weak Data Released Today

October 7, 2019

The Brexit deadline is now 24 days away, and  British Prime Minister Johnson is still insisting on leaving the EU at monthend with or without a deal. He’s unwilling to compromise further. U.S.-Sino trade talks resume Thursday, but it’s reported that while the U.S. wants a comprehensive agreement, China seeks a more limited scope in […] More

Investors Uneasy Awaiting U.S. Jobs and Trade Data

October 4, 2019

Today’s big question is whether the U.S. jobs statistics due in an hour corroborate other weak data released during the past month. Yesterday brought stunning news that the non-manufacturing purchasing managers index slumped 3.8 points in September to a 3-year low and embodied drops of 6.3 points in production and 6.6 points in new business. […] More

Technical Recessions in Germany and U.K. and More Impeachment Drama in the U.S.

October 3, 2019

Composite purchasing manager surveys that embody non-manufacturing as well as manufacturing activity released for several countries in Europe by and large underperformed expectations. Most alarming were the reports for Germany and the U.K., each of which recorded slight contractions of real GDP in the second quarter. The German service sector PMI dropped 3.4 points in […] More

Nervous Market Tone Continuing

October 2, 2019

Investors remain leery that policymakers are up to the task of containing the slowdown of global growth. Monetary stimulus has grown old and less effective, while fiscal support is largely missing in action. The trade war motors on even as evidence such as the September purchasing manager surveys show that nobody wins. British Prime Minister […] More

Geopolitical Strains, Weak Data, and a Poor Bond Auction as New Quarter Kicks Off

October 1, 2019

As China observes National Day, increasingly violent protests in Hong Kong evoked a Kent State moment as one protester has been shot there. Half a world away, President Trump’s team stepped up its manhunt for the impeachment whistle blower. Britain, too, is convulsed by its own constitutional crisis, ans the Conservative Party prepares for its […] More

Typical Monthend Deluge of Data

September 30, 2019

On this final day of September and the third quarter, the dollar and sterling rose somewhat against other major currencies. The dollar is up 0.5% against the Swiss franc, 0.4% relative to the euro and kiwi, 0.3% vis-a-vis the yuan, 0.2% versus the Australian dollar and peso and 0.1% against the yen and loonie. Sterling […] More

Trade Talks Back in the Spotlight

September 27, 2019

A number of factors could have made Friday an ugly day in the marketplace — the U.S. and British political crises, weak European and U.S. data, and Japanese disinflation. But instead, the mood has been lifted by the announcement that U.S. and Chinese trade delegations will restart formal talks in Washington on October 10th. Share […] More

Watching Impeachment Developments and Digesting Data

September 26, 2019

The dollar fell overnight by 0.5% against the kiwi, 0.4% relative to the Aussie dollar, and 0.1% versus the yen and loonie, but it also rose 0.2% against sterling and the euro as well as 0.3% vis-a-vis the Swiss franc. The yuan and peso are unchanged. Wednesday’s rebound in U.S. share prices carried over into […] More

Dollar Up and Stocks Down as Impeachment Inquiry Opens Against Trump

September 25, 2019

House Speaker Pelosi ended her previous resistance to calls for Trump’s impeachment, raising the political risks to both Democrats and Republicans. The United States and Great Britain, which led the free world’s fight against fascism in the 20th century, are now both enmeshed in constitutional crises. Equities fell overnight by 1.3% in South Korea and […] More

Difficult Day in the U.K.

September 24, 2019

The Brexit crisis deepened today as the highest British court ruled unanimously that Prime Minister Johnson’s suspension of parliament was illegal. Just 37 days remain before the current October 31 deadline by which a Brexit deal must be worked out by the Johnson’s government, which at the moment appears highly improbable. On the data front, […] More

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