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New Overnight Developments Abroad – Daily Update

Central Banks and Manufacturing PMI Reports in the Spotlight

August 1, 2019

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee left policy settings unchanged by a unanimous 9-0 vote as was expected. Today’s report coincided with the release of the quarterly Inflation Report. Projected growth in the U.K. last quarter was likely zero percent and that for 2019 has been lowered to 1.3%. The forecast assumes a Brexit […] More

Lots of Data Out but Dollar Marking Time Ahead of FOMC Announcement

July 31, 2019

The dollar is unchanged against the euro, Swiss franc, yen, loonie and yuan, 0.2% softer relative to the peso and Australian dollar, 0.1% lower versus sterling and 0.2% higher against the kiwi. Analysts expect a 25-basis point federal funds cut to be announced at 18:00 GMT, and Chairman Powell will begin his press conference at […] More

European Economic Sentiment Stumbled in July

July 30, 2019

European share prices fell Tuesday, depressed by an unexpectedly large slide in economic sentiment in the euro area to a 40-month low of 102.7 in July. That’s down from 105.2 just two months earlier and 111.2 a year ago. Germany’s economic sentiment slumped 2.4 points between June and July. Two big factors are sapping the […] More

ECB and Turkish Monetary Officials Send Dovish Signals

July 25, 2019

The European Central Bank Governing Council left policy settings unchanged but signaled likelihood of a multi-pronged stimulus after September’s fuller review. A zero percent refi rate has been flanked by a negative 0.40% deposit rate and a 0.25% marginal lending facility rate since cuts made in September 2016. The ECB leadership is in transition; IMF […] More

More Evidence that Tariffs Are Hurting Manufacturing All Over

July 24, 2019

Preliminary purchasing manager survey results from July in Japan, Australia, Euroland, and the U.S. were published today, and their main message is that trade wars hurt just about everybody. Japan’s manufacturing PMI printed below 50 for a third straight month and the fifth time in six months. Readings under 50 imply a contraction of activity. […] More

Dollar Up on Day with Two Large News Developments

July 23, 2019

Boris Johnson, who favors a very hard U.K. break with the EU, was selected as the new leader of the British Conservative Party and will thus succeed Theresa May tomorrow as prime¬† minister. This development greatly increases the likelihood that Britain will leave the European Union by October 31 without any negotiated terms. U.S. congressional […] More

Stocks Mixed, Bond Yields Lower, Oil’s Up, and the Dollar’s Little Changed

July 22, 2019

Equity markets closed down 1.3% in China and Hong Kong, 0.8% in India, 0.4% in Indonesia, and 0.2% in Japan but have risen in Europe by 0.5% in Germany, 0.4% in Italy and 0.3% in the U.K. and France. U.S. share prices also opened slightly higher. Ten-year U.S., German and British¬† sovereign debt yields slipped […] More

NY Fed President Moves Markets Unwittingly

July 19, 2019

John Williams, President of the NY Fed and a permanent member of the FOMC, gave an academic speech asserting that it’s best for central banks to respond quickly in the face of slower economic growth. Investors took his comment as the clearest sign yet that the federal funds rate will be cut at the FOMC […] More

A Quartet of Central Bank Rate Cuts and Netflix Stock Takes a Large Hit

July 18, 2019

Central bank rates were cut today in South Korea, Indonesia, South Africa, and Ukraine. The likelihood that the Fed will ease at the end of this month played a role in each of these actions. All of the reductions were 25-basis point moves. The share price of Netflix has tumbled 10.75% in response to an […] More

Powell and Price Data in the News

July 17, 2019

President Trump needs a weaker dollar to reinforce his trade policy and enhance his reelection prospects. The means to a weaker dollar lies in getting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, if not by knuckling under verbal pressure then by packing the Fed Board with monetary policy doves. Powell overnight made comments suggesting that […] More

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