Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
January 25, 2019
Central Banks: An FOMC policy statement will be published Wednesday but without an ensuing press conference. Central banks in Chile, Colombia, Hungary and Ukraine also have scheduled monetary policy reviews next week. Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s December 19-20 Board meeting and a summary of this past week’s ensuing Board meeting will be released. […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Hope Rises that Trade Talks with China and Border Wall Talks Can Be Resolved
January 25, 2019
Equities lately have been a better barometer than foreign exchange of optimism that the U.S. government shutdown will be resolved and that a re-escalation of U.S. and Chinese tariffs will be averted. On that score, it’s a good sign that in the Pacific Rim share prices closed up by 1.7% in Hong Kong, 1.5% in […] More
Central Bank Watch
ECB Governing Council Recognizes More Difficult Outlook but Keeps Policy Signals the Same
January 24, 2019
The takeaway from today’s ECB Governing Council statement is that “incoming data have continued to be weaker than expected as a result of a slowdown in external demand compounded by some country and sector-specific factors.” Officials are not in denial and explicitly consider the risks associated with their baseline outlook to be skewed to the […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Anxious Times for Investors
January 24, 2019
Investors continue to face three big uncertainties: the U.S. government shutdown, the fast-approaching Brexit deadline, and the failure so far of U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators to reach a mutually satisfying agreement. Planned senate votes on the border wall and shutdown are not likely to pass. The on-again, off-again scheduled state of the union address […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Japan Board Cuts Projected Inflation but Leaves Monetary Stance Unchanged
January 23, 2019
This week’s two-day BOJ Board meeting ending today coincided with the publication of a new quarterly Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices. These reports convey changes in projected GDP growth and core CPI inflation, which excludes perishable foods. The table below compares the latest forecasts identified in rows labeled GDP-JAN with earlier ones made in […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Softer Dollar and Yen
January 23, 2019
The yen fell 0.4% against the dollar overnight on data news and the Bank of Japan’s downward revision of projected core inflation for fiscal 2018, fiscal 2019, and fiscal 2020. The Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged and also revised growth downward in the current fiscal year ending March 31 . BOJ Governor […] More
Deeper Analysis
The Next U.S. Recession
January 22, 2019
I can’t recall any U.S. President, Treasury Secretary, or Fed Chairman predicting a recession prior to its onset. For that matter, financial advisers tend to avoid the R-word until its partly in the rear-view mirror, and conventional wisdom all around usually doesn’t identify a recession until it’s underway. Because of this phobia against shouting that […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Little Changed as Global Stocks Turn Lower Again
January 22, 2019
The dollar is unchanged against the Swiss franc, down 0.2% versus the yen, sterling and peso, off 0.1% relative to the euro, and up 0.1% vis-a-vis the kiwi and yuan. Larger gains have been notched of 0.4% against the loonie and 0.3% versus the Australian dollar. Equities in the Pacific Rim fell 1.2% in China, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Weakening Growth Prospects, Persistent Uncertainties, and a U.S. Holiday
January 21, 2019
U.S. markets are closed today, depriving global markets of their leadership. Martin Luther King’s birthday is being observed. The International Monetary Fund published its quarterly World Economic Update, revising projected global growth in 2019 down 0.2 percentage points to 3.5% and projected global growth in 2020 down 0.1 percentage point to 3.6%. The new growth […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
January 18, 2019
Central Banks: Monetary policy meetings in Norway, Euroland, Japan, Malaysia and South Korea. BOJ Governor Kuroda and ECB President Draghi hold press conferences after their central bank meetings. Bank of Japan also publishes new quarterly Outlook Report. Holidays and Special Events: U.S. Martin Luther King holiday on Monday. World Economic Forum in Switzerland runs from […] More
