Central Bank of Russia
Russian Interest Rate Hike
October 25, 2024
Officials at the Central Bank of Russia had been thought likely to hike their policy interest rate by another percentage point at this month’s scheduled review but surprised analysts by increasing such to 21.0% from 19.0%. The new rate is its highest in just over two decades and five full percentage points above the mid-2024 […] More
Flat Dollar, Equities Mixed, Many Data Releases, and a Larger-than-Forecast Russian Interest Rate Hike
October 25, 2024
Major dollar relationships show minimal net movement from Thursday closings. Equity markets fell 0.6% in Japan, 0.8% in India and New Zealand and Spain so far, but advanced by 0.7% in Taiwan, 0.6% in China, 0.5% in Hong Kong and 0.2% so far in Germany. U.S. stock futures are modestly in the black but headed […] More
Central Bank Rate Hike to 19% in Russia
September 13, 2024
Officials at the Central Bank of Russia face an altogether different set of circumstances due to President Putin’s attempt to restore the Russian Empire. CPI inflation has reaccelerated from 2.3% in April 2023 to a 13-month high of 9.1%. After the latest review of policy, officials released a statement today than announces a two percentage […] More
Persistent Doubt Over Size of Next Week’s Fed Interest Rate Cut
September 13, 2024
One of the hallmarks of the Federal Reserve’s quest during the past two decades for a more transparent U.S. monetary policy has been to avoid if at all possible surprising market participants. That means verbally preparing investors to expect a change in policy before it actually happens, not only from a timing perspective but also […] More
Awaiting U.S. PCE Price Deflator
July 26, 2024
Recent equity losses were trimmed ahead of the U.S. open in a bout of bottom-fishing. Share prices closed up 0.9% in Indonesia and 0.8% in South Korea and Taiwan. U.S. stock futures and equity futures in Germany, the U.K. and France are up, too. But Taiwan, which had been closed, saw a slump of 3.3%. […] More
Growing Confidence that Central Bank Interest Rates Are Coming
March 22, 2024
Fed Chairman’s reassuring press conference, central bank rate cuts in Switzerland, Brazil, Mexico, and the Czech Republic, and a hint from the German Bundesbank president that the ECB Governing Council might consider easing by early summer have lifted the mood of investors. The dollar has withstood this shift in sentiment. The weighted DXY dollar index […] More
Marking Time Ahead of U.S. Producer Price Release
February 16, 2024
The dollar is unchanged from Thursday closing levels against the euro, sterling, yuan, peso and Canadian dollar. The greenback has dipped 0.1% versus the Australian and New Zealand dollars but edged up 0.1% relative to the Swiss franc. Chinese markets remain shut as they’ve been all week in observance of the start of the Year […] More
Bank of Russia Tightens Again
December 15, 2023
The Bank of Russia lifted its benchmark interest rate by another full percentage point to 16.0% and predicted that a tight policy stance would be needed for quite a time longer. The rate has gone from 7.5% as recently as mid-2023. The war in Ukraine has gone from a series of early setbacks for Russian […] More
Russian Interest Rate Hike
September 15, 2023
Faced with consumer price inflation that in between May and August accelerated to a 9.9% annualized pace, officials at the Central Bank of Russia felt compelled to lift its interest rate by another full percentage point to 13.0%. This increase comes on top of hikes of 100 bps in July and 350 bps in August. […] More
Dollar and Price of Oil Strengthen Further
September 15, 2023
Chinese data for August released Friday beat expectations. On year increases in retail sales and industrial production of 4.6% and 4.5% represent 3- and 4-month highs, and the jobless rate fell 0.1 percentage point back to the 5.2% level of the second quarter. That was the lowest in 16 months. To be sure, there were […] More
