Deeper Analysis
August 2025 in Figures
August 29, 2025
Although the Federal Open Market Committee did not have a scheduled policy review during August, the U.S. central bank was constantly in the spotlight during the month, as President Trump took several actions meant to strip the Fed’s image as a independent manager of U.S. monetary policy. While the firewalls against interference in U.S. monetary […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: August 30-September 5, 2025
August 29, 2025
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Poland and Malaysia are scheduled in the coming week. The Fed Beige Book of recent regional economic conditions gets published Wednesday, and market participants also will be monitoring ongoing developments in President Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook “for cause” and her counter-suit of the legality of his […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Marking Time Ahead of the U.S. PCE Price Deflator’s Release
August 29, 2025
There’s much for investors to ponder, but with about 2-1/2 hours remaining before the release of U.S. personal income and consumption, whose price deflator has the most influence on Fed policy among the various measures of inflation, financial markets are playing possum. Net overnight movement of the dollar against the euro, yen, Swiss franc, Aussie […] More
Central Bank Watch
Third Egyptian Central Bank Rate Cut Since April
August 28, 2025
The Central Bank of Egypt’s new policy interest rate level will be 22.0%, still considerably north of year-on-year CPI inflation (13.9%) as of July. Along with reductions done in April and May, today’s as-expected two percentage point cut means that all but 75 basis points of a six percentage point increase in March 2024 has […] More
Central Bank Watch
Interest Rate Cut in the Philippines
August 28, 2025
In the Philippines where on-year CPI inflation in July printed at a 69-month low of 0.9%, officials at Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cut their key interest rate by another 25 percentage points to a 33-month low of 5.0%. This expected move brings cumulative rate reduction over the past year to 150 basis points. Filipino inflation […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Revised U.S. GDP, Euroland Economic Sentiment, and ECB Minutes in Today’s Headlines
August 28, 2025
The dollar lost marginal ground overnight, including dips of 0.2% against the euro and yen. In contrast to one-basis point upticks in the U.S. and German ten-year sovereign debt yields, those of other key economies slipped such as 3 basis points in Italy, two bps in France and Great Britain, and one basis point in […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Up In Spite of Trump’s Interference in Monetary Policy
August 27, 2025
President Trump, who has been outspoken in demanding that the Federal Reserve cut its short-term interest rate substantially, is pursuing legal channels to fire Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Market watchers have been surprised at how little this potentially huge policy change has impacted the dollar or equities, and that disconnection is being seen as a […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Second Thoughts about the Scope and Implication of Possible Resumed Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts
August 25, 2025
(177) The euphoria of investors following last Friday’s speech from Fed Chairman Powell ebbed quickly. Whereas risk-on behavior surged before the weekend on the signal that a rate reduction in September would be up for likely discussion, today’s market activity has been considerably more muted. Ten-year sovereign debt yields have risen seven basis points in […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Powell’s Highly Awaited Speech Today Lifts Likelihood of Resumed Cycle of U.S. Interest Rate Reduction
August 22, 2025
Speaking at the Jackson Hole Monetary Symposium this morning Federal Reserve Chairman Powell acknowledged that the U.S. baseline outlook and balance of risks between higher inflation and lessening employment growth are shifting. Major points that were expressed include Broad agreement among policymakers exists that recent and ongoing tariff hikes will lift inflation in the short […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Stew of FOMC Minutes, Preliminary Purchasing Manager Survey Results, and Producer Price and Consumer Confidence Reports
August 21, 2025
In spite of on-going concern about tariffs and geopolitical strains, the preliminary readings of August purchasing manager surveys highlighted unexpected economic resilience around the world: The S&P Global-compiled U.S. composite PMI index jumped to an 8-month high of 55.4 due to a 39-month high manufacturing score of 53.3 that outweighed a 2-month low service sector […] More
