Deeper Analysis
May in Figures
May 31, 2018
The dollar rose over 3% in May against the euro and sterling and by about 1% against the yuan and Canadian dollar but slipped fractionally relative to the yen, loonie and Australian dollar. Ten-year sovereign debt yields had risen in April but declined in May. Share prices rose in the U.K., Canada and United States, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Down, Stocks Up, and Intra-Euroland Yield Spreads Contract Further
May 31, 2018
While the 10-year German bund yield remained unchanged overnight, comparable sovereign debt yields elsewhere in the euro area fell by 11 basis points in Italy, six basis points in Portugal and Greece and 3 bps in Spain despite Prime Minister Rajoy’s fragile hold on political power. The dollar weakened 0.4% against the euro, Swiss franc, […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Muted Movement in EUR/USD and USD/JPY Pairs During New York Trading Hours
May 30, 2018
For decades, I’ve been recording at least two quotes a day in major dollar relationships. Sometimes, I take down more than two quotes, but I always get a quote shortly after 4 PM and an earlier record around 7:30 in the morning. The latter quotes are the ones I use for my daily rate series […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Canada Moves Closer to Enacting a Fourth Rate Hike
May 30, 2018
The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate hike had earlier been raised by 25 basis points each in July and September of 2017 and on January 17, 2018. While leaving the rate at 1.25% at this week’s scheduled policy review, officials in a released statement observed that both inflation and real activity had lately been somewhat […] More
Central Bank Watch
Second Indonesian Central Bank Rate Hike Within Two Weeks
May 30, 2018
In follow-up to the 25-basis point tightening done on May 17th, Bank Indonesia’s Board lifted the 7-day reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% after an unscheduled meeting. The deposit facility and lending facility rates were also raised by 25 basis points to 4.0% and 5.5%. Although the economy is performing soundly, a […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Less Fear about Italy, More Fear Over Trade
May 30, 2018
Highly successful Italian 10-year and 5-year sovereign debt auctions following growing incohesion among anti-euro political elements in that country alleviated one source of market strains. 10-year government bond yields fell by 24 basis points in Italy, 21 bps in Greece, 9 bps in Portugal and 4 bps in Spain. Yields, by contrast, rose 11 bps […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Global Financial Markets Hit by Threat to EU from Italian and Spanish Political Crises
May 29, 2018
Ten-year sovereign debt yields shot up 45 and 41 basis points overnight in Greece and Italy, while also rising 12 bps in Portugal and 8 bps in Spain. Share prices in Europe have plunged 3.2% in Italy, 2.7% in Spain, 1.8% in Greece, 1.5% in France, 1.4% in Germany and the U.K. and 1.3% in […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Focus on Italy, Korea, Turkey & Oil Prices as U.S. and Britain Observing Holidays
May 28, 2018
Italian President Mattarella rejected the League/5-Star choice for economy/finance minister, whereupon that coalition withdrew its bid to lead Italy’s government and called for Mattarella’s impeachment and immediate election. Mattarella then asked former IMF Director of Fiscal Policy Cottarelli to form a provisional governing coalition. Elections likely no later than the autumn. Italian share prices dived 1.3%, […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
May 25, 2018
The last week of May is crowded with holidays and economic data releases but very light from a central bank watching standpoint. Holidays: U.S. and British markets closed Monday for Memorial Day and the late spring bank holiday, respectively. Singapore and Indonesia closed Tuesday for the festival of Vesak commemorating the birth, enlightenment and death […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Little Market Reaction to Trump’s Decision to Call Off Summit with Kim
May 25, 2018
Markets have taken President Trump’s decision not to meet Jung Un Kim in Singapore on June 12 surprisingly calmly. North Korean official did not escalate the disagreement, indicating instead a continuing interest for Trump and Kim to meet. The biggest market developments the Friday have been A 1.8% drop in WTI crude oil to $69.46 […] More
