Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
June 29, 2018
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews are scheduled in Australia, Sweden, and Romania. FOMC minutes and the results of the quarterly Bank of Japan survey of business conditions and expectations will be published. Holidays and Special Events: Next week kicks of the third quarter and second half of 2018. There are holiday closures on Monday in […] More
Deeper Analysis
June and Second Quarter 2018 in Figures
June 29, 2018
The dominant market themes in June and 2Q were a sharp rise in the price of oil and a strengthening dollar, neither of which belongs in a recipe to accomplish President Trump’s quest to reduce the U.S. trade deficit sharply if not to zero. Dollar appreciation was particularly pronounced against the Chinese yuan. The federal […] More
Central Bank Watch
Third Indonesian Central Bank Interest Rate Hike Since May 17th
June 29, 2018
Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors today raised the 7-day reverse repo rate by a greater-than-expected 50 basis points to 5.25%. The move followed quarter percentage points hikes on May 17 and May 31 and was accompanied by 50-bp increases in Indonesia’s overnight deposit rate to 4.5% and lending rate to 6.0%. A statement released after […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Volatile Market Session on Final Business Day of the Quarter and Amid Many Data Reports
June 29, 2018
Share prices climbed 2.8% in Hong Kong, 2.3% in Indonesia, 2.2% in China, 1.7% in Taiwan, but just 0.2% in Japan. In Europe, equities have risen 1.3% in Germany and France, 1.6% in Switzerland, 1.0% in Italy and 0.6% in the U.K.. The DOW shows a gain of slightly over 1.0% so far today. Another […] More
Central Bank Watch
No Plans to Lift New Zealand’s Official Cash Rate Anytime Soon
June 28, 2018
The best contribution we can make to maximising sustainable employment, and maintaining low and stable inflation, is to ensure the OCR is at an expansionary level for a considerable period. So concludes today’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s released statement following the decision to retain the OCR at a record low of 1.75%. The OCR […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Stronger Canadian Dollar
June 28, 2018
Today’s major dollar change has been a decline against other North American currencies. The loonie is up 0.7%, as investors have become more confident that the Bank of Canada will raise its interest rate after the July Board meeting. The Mexican peso has also strengthened. Against other currencies, the dollar shows no net change against […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Euro, Sterling and Sovereign Debt Yields Down but Stocks and Oil Strengthen
June 27, 2018
A signal of a less provocative U.S. stance against China on trade lifted share prices today in Europe and North America. Asian equities had earlier fallen further. The Dow is up a tad more than 1.0%, and stocks have risen by 1.5% in France and Germany, 1.2% in Italy, and 1.2% in Great Britain. Japan’s […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Market Calm on Wednesday Proved Short-Lived
June 21, 2018
The upbeat view regarding saber-rattling over trade never made much sense and in hindsight was just a rationalization by traders to explain calmer conditions yesterday. Trade war fear is back in the spotlight today. In the ensuing scramble for safety over investment return has seen Share prices fall by 1.4% in Germany, 1.1% in France, […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Thailand: No Change
June 20, 2018
Thailand’s one-day repo rate was kept at 1.5% by a vote of 5-1. It’s been at that level since a 25-bp cut in April 2015. Unlike some Asian economies, Thailand runs a current account surplus. Inflation still lies below the 1-4% target midpoint. Officials took this occasion to raise projected GDP growth this year and […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Calmer Waters
June 20, 2018
Share prices recovered 1.2% in Japan and Australia, 1.0% in South Korea, 0.7% in India, 0.4% in Hong Kong and 0.3% in China. U.S. and European equities have rebounded more moderately. The spin on a possible trade war is that the harsh rhetoric from officials in the U.S. and China is just threat to secure […] More
