U.S. GDP growth

Thursday’s Focus Turns to Central Banks

May 26, 2022

The dollar slid overnight by 0.2% against the euro, yen, sterling, and Mexican peso and by 0.1% versus the Swiss franc and on a weighted basis. Alternatively the U.S. currency advanced 0.6% relative to the Chinese yuan, 0.3% relative to the Russian ruble, and 0.2% vis-a-vis the Turkish lira. The kiwi, Aussie dollar and Canadian […] More

Differentiated Growth and Covid Prospects According to Efficiency of Vaccine Roll-Outs

March 25, 2021

The dollar has been taking its cue lately from vaccine news. The United States has handled the roll-out much better the Europe. Britain had been getting vaccinated at a good clip, too, but now faces a possible EU ban of vaccine exports to the U.K.. Japan’s Covid spread has also picked up lately. The proliferation […] More

Many Data Released Today as Inflation fears Continue

February 25, 2021

Shortly before today’s release of U.S. economic data, 10-year sovereign debt yields were showing considerable increases (for example, 8 basis points in the United States and Italy, 12 bps in Canada, 6 bps in Spain and the U.K., 5 bps in Germany and France, and 2 basis points in Japan). The trade-weighted dollar had eased […] More

Awaiting Speeches from Central Bankers

August 27, 2020

The third night of the Republican National Convention was mostly about law and order. The event concludes today with President Trump’s key speech to the party faithful. The message of “law and order” surfaced during the President Nixon’s 1968 successful run for president and has been a basic tenet of Republican campaigns ever since. Law […] More

Lots of Data and an FOMC Meeting to Digest

April 29, 2020

Even with Japanese markets shut for the first of several “Golden Week” holidays, today is a very active day. Euroland economic sentiment, U.S. GDP, and several price statistics head a long list of data releases. Also, the FOMC will announce the conclusions of a scheduled review of monetary policy, which will be followed by a […] More

Stronger Canadian Dollar

June 28, 2018

Today’s major dollar change has been a decline against other North American currencies. The loonie is up 0.7%, as investors have become more confident that the Bank of Canada will raise its interest rate after the July Board meeting. The Mexican peso has also strengthened. Against other currencies, the dollar shows no net change against […] More

Is U.S. Growth Really Strengthening?

March 28, 2018

Although the first derivative of the U.S. economy’s size has been very consistently positive, the answer to the above question is more debatable. In the nearly nine years since the Great Recession ended in mid-2009, real GDP rose in 35 of 36 quarters through end-2017, and the exception was a mere 0.9% annualized on-quarter dip […] More

A Few Observations on the U.S. GDP Report

January 30, 2013

Analysts had anticipated slower economic growth in the final quarter of 2012 but not a 0.1% annualized contraction of GDP.  The politician/layman’s definition of a recession requires two straight quarters in which real GDP shrinks.  The more technical  requirements of the economists entrusted with dating economic downturns looks at monthly data for such things as […] More

Big Picture Reflections on Today’s U.S. Data

September 29, 2011

People who trade currencies daily put a heavy emphasis on how reported data compare to street forecasts, and whether a number is deemed bullish or bearish hinges on that immediate litmus test.  Today’s upward revision of second-quarter U.S. GDP growth to 1.3% from 1.0% was a bigger improvement than predicted.   New U.S. jobless claims of […] More

U.S. GDP Growth

January 28, 2011

U.S. real GDP growth strengthened to 3.2% annualized (saar) last quarter from 2.6% in the third quarter and 1.7% in 2Q.  GDP was 2.8% higher than in the final quarter of 2009 versus a net rise of just 0.2% between 4Q08 and 4Q09.  Real final sales expanded by a robust 7.1% saar, with advances of […] More