June and Second Quarter 2018 in Figures
June 29, 2018
The dominant market themes in June and 2Q were a sharp rise in the price of oil and a strengthening dollar, neither of which belongs in a recipe to accomplish President Trump’s quest to reduce the U.S. trade deficit sharply if not to zero. Dollar appreciation was particularly pronounced against the Chinese yuan. The federal reserve was the only central bank among those featured in this post to change its central bank rate, as it engineered a seventh 25-basis point hike in the current tightening cycle. Long-term interest rates rose in North America but fell in Europe and Japan. Share prices, which had faltered during the first quarter, advanced for the most part during the spring, but the route was highly volatile and not shared by Switzerland’s market. Likewise, the price of gold declined, which is typical of times when the dollar is well-bid.
| 10-Yr Yield | 06/29/18 | Chg vs May 31 | Chg vs End-1Q |
| U.S. | 2.86% | +1 Basis Point | +12 Basis Points |
| Germany | 0.30% | -3 | -19 |
| Japan | 0.02% | 0 | -2 |
| U.K. | 1.28% | +5 | -12 |
| Canada | 2.16% | -7 | +7 |
| Switzerland | -0.12% | -3 | -12 |
| CB Policy Rate | 06/29/18 | Chg v May 31 | Chg vs End-1Q |
| Fed funds target | 1.75/2.00% | +25 Basis Points | +25 Basis Points |
| ECB deposit rate | -0.40% | 0 | 0 |
| BOJ policy rate | -0.10% | 0 | 0 |
| BOE Bank Rate | 0.50% | 0 | 0 |
| Swiss 3M Libor | -1.25/-0.25% | 0 | 0 |
| FX | 06/29/18 | % Chg in USD | Pct Chg in $ |
| EUR/USD | 1.1683 | +0.1% | +5.5% |
| USD/JPY | 110.68 | +1.7% | +4.2% |
| USD/CHF | 0.9900 | +0.4% | +3.9% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3207 | +0.7% | +6.2% |
| AUD/USD | 0.7405 | +2.1% | +3.7% |
| NZD/USD | 0.6781 | +3.2% | +6.7% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3139 | +1.3% | +1.9% |
| USD/CNY | 6.6210 | +3.3% | +5.5% |
| Equities | 06/29/18 | Chg v May 31 | Chg vs End-1Q |
| S&P 500 | 2718 | +0.4% | +2.9% |
| Nasdaq | 7510 | +0.9% | +6.3% |
| Djia | 24271 | -0.6% | +0.7% |
| Dax | 12306 | -2.4% | +1.7% |
| Nikkei | 22305 | +0.5% | +4.0% |
| Ftse | 7637 | -0.5% | +8.2% |
| Canada TSE | 16278 | +1.4% | +5.9% |
| Swiss SMI | 8609 | +1.8% | -1.5% |
| Commodities | 06/29/18 | Chg v May 31 | Chg v End-1Q |
| Oil, $ per barrel | 74.30 | +10.6% | +14.5% |
| Gold, $ per ounce | 1252.36 | -3.7% | -2.2% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2018. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: bond yields, FX, gold, Oil, stocks
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