Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of Hungary
April 25, 2018
The latest review of Hungarian monetary policy by the central bank’s Council decided to keep their low interest rates unchanged. The overnight deposit rate has been at -0.15% since a ten-basis point cut last September, and the base rate and overnight collateralized lending rate have been at 0.90% since a 15-basis point reduction in May […] More
Central Bank Watch
Canadian Monetary Policy Meeting of April 18th Left Stance Unchanged
April 25, 2018
The April Bank of Canada Governing Council meeting coincided with the publication of a quarterly Monetary Policy Report and newly updated macroeconomic forecasts. The last policy change in January, a 25-basis point overnight target interest rate hike to 1.25%, occurred when the previous MPR was released. Board members this time chose to keep the policy […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Broadly Stronger… Gold and Global Bonds Down
April 25, 2018
The Mexican peso extended its recent swoon, falling 1.0% against the dollar and moving past the 19 per USD threshold. U.S./Mexican relations appear headed for another dive, as Lopez Obrador, the former Mexico City mayor and a populist, retained a huge lead in presidential election polls. The election is just over two months away. It’s […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Paused Rise of Dollar and Sovereign Debt Yields but Commodity Rally Continued Overnight
April 24, 2018
The dollar slipped overnight by 0.2% against the Aussie dollar and sterling and 0.1% versus the euro. The kiwi and yen fell 0.3%, while the loonie is flat. The ten-year Treasury yield eased back a basis point and, at 2.97%, remains below the key 3.0% threshold. Ten-year German bund, British gilt and Japanese JGB yields […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Lessening Inflation in Europe and Some Significant Meetings
April 18, 2018
Japanese Prime Minister Abe and President Trump are meeting in Florida. CIA Director Pompeo, who has been nominated by Trump to be Secretary of State, met secretly with North Korean President Kim Jong-Un, to decide arrangements for Kim’s historical talks next month with Trump. Investors perceive lessening geopolitical tension. British CPI inflation in March fell […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Some Data Surprises
April 17, 2018
There’s been a surprisingly large downward revision in Japanese industrial production during February from an increase of 4.1% reported initially to a zero percent month-on-month change. That flat performance follows a 3.1% drop recorded in January and left output just 1.6% higher than a year earlier. By comparison, industrial production posted a 4.3% on-year advance […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
False Claims
April 16, 2018
The experience of 45 years since governments in the major economies adopted a system of market-determined flexible exchange rates has taught officials to treat currency policy as a delicate matter. The less that is said by officials about their own or other currencies, the better. Currency policy in the United States falls under the jurisdiction […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Israel Retains 0.10% Policy Interest Rate
April 16, 2018
The last central bank interest rate change in Israel was a cut of 15 basis points in February 2015 to 0.10%. Previously the rate had been lowered by 75 basis points per year in 2011-14. The latest policy review reaffirmed the need for continuing an accommodative stance. Although inflation early in 2018 was a shade […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Long-Term Interest Rates Climb Higher
April 16, 2018
Softer sovereign debt prices (higher yields) are the most consistent and significant market development this Monday. The week ahead will feature the semi-annual IMF/World Bank meetings and quarterly earnings reports from many companies. 10-year sovereign debt yields are up four basis points in the U.K. and three bps each in Germany and the United States. […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
April 13, 2018
Special Events: Semi-annual IMF/World Bank Meetings will be running throughout the week in Washington, DC. Highlights of the gathering will include publication of the World Economic Forum, a press conference on Thursday by IMF Managing Director Lagarde, and a Group of Twenty press conference on Friday. A meeting of EU finance ministers will occur on […] More
