Deeper Analysis
November in Figures
November 29, 2014
In November, long-term interest rates fell sharply, and oil prices plunged nearly 20%. Most equity markets but not Germany’s appreciated, and so did the dollar against most other currencies. Gold closed little changed on balance. 10-Yr Yield 10/31/14 10/31/14 Chg vs End-Oct U.S. 2.33% 2.16 -17 Basis Points Germany 084% 0.70% -14 Japan 0.45% 0.41% […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
November 28, 2014
Central Bank Watch: Monetary policy meetings in Canada, Australia, Euroland, Britain, India, Brazil, and Poland. Also, Fed’s Beige Book gets released. Data: Purchasing manager surveys: manufacturing, services, euro area retail, and Australia, U.K. and Germany construction. U.S.: Employment, unemployment, average hourly earnings, factory orders, construction spending, jobless insurance claims, chain store sales, mortgage applications, consumer […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Plunging Commodity Prices and Other Leftovers
November 28, 2014
At $69.10 per barrel, WTI crude oil has fallen 6.2%. OPEC failed to cut production quotas. Comex gold is down over 1% at $1,182.20 per ounce. Share prices are higher in the United States, Japan, China and India. European equities are little changed. Dollar/yen has risen further. The euro is lower against the dollar but […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Thanksgiving Day 2014
November 27, 2014
Markets will lack the usual leadership of the U.S. trading presence, but some interesting data were released earlier. Germany’s unemployment stayed at a record low of 6.6% in November. 14K fewer workers were without work, which was a surprise to forecasters. German consumer price inflation slowed to 0.6% in November from 0.8% in the three […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
U.S. Heading for Thanksgiving Day Break
November 26, 2014
Before U.S. markets close early today, a load of U.S. data were released including several downside surprises. New jobless insurance claims jumped 21K last week to 313K, and that boosted the 4-week average rise by 6.25K to 294K. The U. Michigan/Reuters gauge of consumer sentiment in November got revised downward to 88.8 from 89.4 reported […] More
Central Bank Watch
Magyar Nemzeti Bank Sends Same Message as Last month
November 25, 2014
A statement released after Hungary’s latest monetary policy meeting conveyed the view that the 2.1% key interest rate will be maintained for considerable time further. The negative output gap is expected to close gradually at the monetary policy horizon. Looking ahead, therefore, the disinflationary impact of the real economy is likely to diminish and, with […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Mixed Data, Muted Market Changes
November 25, 2014
U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter was revised unexpectedly higher by almost a half percentage point to 3.9%. The 2-quarter rise between 1Q and 3Q was the strongest in more than ten years. The core PCE deflator inflation rate of 1.5% remains a half percentage point below target. Growth was led by private domestic […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Israel
November 24, 2014
A dozen central bank interest rates between September 2011 and August 2014, including three this year, reduced Israel’s central bank interest rate to 0.25% from 3.25%, but monetary officials are reluctant to go all the way to zero without cause. Moreover, in a statement after the latest monthly policy meeting officials reaffirmed the main message […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Mood to Take on More Risk
November 24, 2014
Asian markets rallied in lagged reaction to China’s interest rate cut on Friday, and European market confidence was heartened further by a better-than-forecast German business climate report. Another supportive factor has been speculation that the ECB is poised to start purchasing sovereign debt soon. This will be a light day from a data release perspective. […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
November 21, 2014
Holiday closures in the U.S. and Japan: Japanese markets are closed Monday for Labor Thanksgiving, and U.S. markets will be closed or short-staffed from Wednesday onward for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Friday is the biggest U.S. shopping day of the year. At a difficult time for the OPEC cartel, oil ministers will hold a meeting […] More
