June 5, 2026
The U.S. Labor Department’s monthly employment situation report for May depicts a stronger labor market situation than realized. A 172k jump in nonfarm payroll jobs was more than double consensus expectations. In addition to upward revisions to the increases in March and April totaling 93k brings the latest three-month average to a robust 188k and […] Read Article
May 17, 2026
A paradox of recent foreign exchange conditions is that while the phenomenon of upwardly shifting inflation prospects and downwardly shifting economic growth forecasts concerning 2026 around the world was a by-product of the U.S. decision to wage war against Iran, the U.S. dollar has so far weathered the storm surprisingly well. As the world’s hegemonic […] Read Article
May 25, 2026
The policy interest rate of the Bank of Israel as expected has been lowered by 25 basis points today. This was the fourth such cut since the start of 2024 but only the first since this past January. At 3.75%, the new interest rate level is its lowest since September 2o23. The central bank’s statement […] Read Article
May 29, 2026
For many weeks now, Trump administration officials have been saying that a peace deal may be just around the corner, but the conditions for such have so far proven elusive. That hasn’t mattered. Repeat something long enough and people will come to believe it, and so financial markets in the third month of the Middle […] Read Article
June 4, 2026
Middle Eastern geopolitics continues to impact financial market activity in multiple ways. There is the guessing game about when an enduring ceasefire and will be reached, which pivots with each ensuing pronouncement from officials or rumor/news scoop that hits the wires. Seemingly lost in this focus on the timing of a deal is the reality […] More
June 3, 2026
The dollar has benefitted from solid U.S. economic data and fresh doubts that peace and shipping traffic will be restored in the Middle East. The biggest dollar gains overnight involved 0.7-1.0% rises against the won, peso, kiwi and rupiah as well as lesser 0.2-0.5% advances relative to the euro, Swiss franc, Aussie dollar, loonie and […] More
June 2, 2026
This has been another day without the cause of peace being enhanced. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly non-existent. Russia has escalated military bombardments of Ukraine. It remains unclear whether Israel will heed calls for it to deescalate its war in Lebanon. There has been a direct link between the geopolitical strife in […] More
June 1, 2026
(137) Given last week’s optimistic mood regarding negotiations for a lasting ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, todays dour mood has seemingly descended on the financial community without warning. On closer inspection, the shifting prospects for a “deal” was predictable and inevitably timed. Overly optimistic forecasts especially from the U.S. side have happened […] More
May 29, 2026
The verbal message that a peace deal in the Middle East, which began very soon after the conflict’s outbreak, may be getting stale but nonetheless continues to temper the reaction of financial markets. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut. Fighting in Lebanon continues. The U.S. has still not signed off on the reported deal […] More
May 28, 2026
From a military standpoint, it doesn’t look like long-term peace in the Middle East is close at hand. The U.S. and Iran traded military strikes already this week, and the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is being repeatedly violated as well. Nonetheless, reports continue that Iranian and U.S. negotiators are close to a penciling a […] More
May 27, 2026
The news regarding U.S.-Iranian negotiations remains confusingly mixed, but the market’s attention has honed in on an optimistic comment on Iranian state news predicting a return to pre-war shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz within a month. In response, the price of WTI crude dived as low as $87.77 (a 40-day trough) and is […] More
May 26, 2026
In overnight trading following the extended U.S. Memorial Day holiday weekend, the dollar strengthened 0.8% against the Indonesian rupiah, 0.5% vis-a-vis the kiwi, 0.3% relative to sterling, the Mexican peso and Swiss franc, and 0.2% versus the yen and euro. Advances so far in the Russell 2000, Nasdaq and S&P 500 amount to 1.7%, 1.3% […] More
May 25, 2026
(138) U.S. and British financial markets will be closed for Memorial Day and the late spring bank holiday, respectively. While many other European countries will be observing Whit Monday, the major stock markets are open. President Trump keeps dangling the prospect of a coming deal with Iran to end the war, reopen the Strait of […] More
May 22, 2026
This week at least the lack of cheery news on the U.S./Iranian negotiating front was outweighed by proof of continuing heavy investment in AI and overall strong profitability in the tech industries. U.S. equities rose further today. Japan’s Nikkei leaped by 2.7% and was nearly matched by a rebound in Taiwanese equities. Stock markets rose […] More
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