FOMC

FOMC Not Expected to Change Interest Rate Today

July 27, 2016

No press conference is scheduled to follow today’s released FOMC policy statement due at 18:00 GMT (14:00 EDT), nor are policymakers likely to spring a surprise federal funds rate hike on the market.  If that were to happen, an unscheduled press conference would be hastily arranged.  The previous FOMC statement on June 14 occurred just […] More

Sentiment Up Ahead of FOMC on Japanese Fiscal Indication and Apple’s 2Q Earnings

July 27, 2016

The FOMC will release a policy statement at 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT).  No rate hike is expected. Japanese Prime Minister Abe quantified the coming fiscal stimulus at a greater-than-expected JPY 28 trillion, or roughly $265 billion.  However, it seems that only about half the total will involve “real money,” that is actual government deficit spending. […] More

Yen, Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Strengthen

July 26, 2016

The dollar fell overnight by 1.0% against the yen, 0.8% relative to the kiwi and 0.7% vis-a-vis the Aussie dollar, but the U.S. currency is little changed against other major currencies. The Japanese Nikkei lost 1.4% on signs from Finance Minister Aso that less fiscal stimulus is planned than investors were assuming.  The Bank of […] More

Yellen’s Speech Today and the Dollar Outlook

June 6, 2016

The Fed Chair’s speech in Philadelphia today did not depart significantly from her previous comments on the U.S. economic outlook, risks to the baseline forecast, and how Fed policy might evolve from here.  One apparent change, which markets already had concluded, is that a federal funds rate hike to 0.50% at next week’s FOMC meeting […] More

FOMC Minutes and a Missing Plane Rattle Market Nerves

May 19, 2016

A wide range of commodities have dropped sharply, including overnight declines of 1.5% in gold, 1.9% in oil and over 2.0% in copper. Stocks and bonds also suffered. Share prices dropped 1.3% in New Zealand and Singapore, 1.2% in India, 1.0% in Hong Kong, 0.8% in Taiwan, 0.6% in Indonesia and Australia, and 0.5% in […] More

FOMC Preview

April 27, 2016

Six weeks have passed since the March16 FOMC statement and ensuing press conference.  My review of those events can be seen here.  Since the statement’s release, the dollar has fallen 2.0% against the euro and 2.2% relative to the yen.  The 10-year Treasury yield is declined ten basis points on balance, while the Dow Jones […] More

FOMC Day and an Australian Data Surprise

April 27, 2016

The Federal Open Market Committee will release a statement at 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT) on the results of its third policy meeting of 2016.  The federal funds rate is not expected to change, and attention will be focused on comments regarding U.S. economic conditions and likely prospects for clues to the timing of the next […] More

Chernobyl Anniversary, Five U.S. Primaries, and Firmer Oil Price

April 26, 2016

Today is the 30th anniversary of the nuclear reactor accident in Chernobyl.  That event still constrains use of nuclear power even as the planet continues to warm. Today’s U.S. presidential primaries are in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island.  384 Democratic Party delegates and 118 Republican delegates are at stake.  Trump is expected to […] More

High-Flying Yen

April 7, 2016

The yen climbed to new highs for the move of 108.02 per dollar and 123.12 per euro.  The yen overnight gained 1.3% on balance against the U.S. currency despite yesterday’s hint from a Ministry of Finance official that intervention is possible.  Today, Prime Minister Abe seemed to undermine that threat, saying that countries should not […] More

Across-the-Board Dollar Losses

March 17, 2016

Today’s market focus has been on central bank policies. The FOMC cited global developments and a downwardly revised perception of the longer term neutral interest rate level to justify only around two likely interest rate hikes in 2016 and a lower federal funds rate path throughout the forecast period. The Bank of Norway, Norges Bank, […] More

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