FOMC
First the BOJ and Now onto the Fed
September 21, 2016
The Bank of Japan Board reconfigured its monetary policy framework, switching the policy’s anchor from quantitative stimulus with a negative marginal policy deposit rate to an orientation that aims to manipulate the yield curve, making such slope upward, and to raise expected inflation through plans to overshoot the inflation target. Details of the new approach are […] More
Awaiting News from the Bank of Japan and FOMC
September 20, 2016
Monetary policymakers in Japan and the United States are holding two-day meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday. The BOJ decision will hit the wires around 04:00 GMT tomorrow. The FOMC statement is scheduled for 18:00 GMT on Wednesday. Neither meeting’s outcome is obvious. The BOJ is conducting an atypical full assessment of its policy stance, considering […] More
FOMC Statement
July 27, 2016
The Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds rate target unchanged as expected at 0.25-0.50% and released a statement that upgraded labor market conditions but otherwise pretty much retained the same economic assessment. Unlike the previous mid-June result, the decision to leave policy unchanged was not unanimous. As she had done at meetings in […] More
FOMC Not Expected to Change Interest Rate Today
July 27, 2016
No press conference is scheduled to follow today’s released FOMC policy statement due at 18:00 GMT (14:00 EDT), nor are policymakers likely to spring a surprise federal funds rate hike on the market. If that were to happen, an unscheduled press conference would be hastily arranged. The previous FOMC statement on June 14 occurred just […] More
Sentiment Up Ahead of FOMC on Japanese Fiscal Indication and Apple’s 2Q Earnings
July 27, 2016
The FOMC will release a policy statement at 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT). No rate hike is expected. Japanese Prime Minister Abe quantified the coming fiscal stimulus at a greater-than-expected JPY 28 trillion, or roughly $265 billion. However, it seems that only about half the total will involve “real money,” that is actual government deficit spending. […] More
Yen, Aussie Dollar and Kiwi Strengthen
July 26, 2016
The dollar fell overnight by 1.0% against the yen, 0.8% relative to the kiwi and 0.7% vis-a-vis the Aussie dollar, but the U.S. currency is little changed against other major currencies. The Japanese Nikkei lost 1.4% on signs from Finance Minister Aso that less fiscal stimulus is planned than investors were assuming. The Bank of […] More
Yellen’s Speech Today and the Dollar Outlook
June 6, 2016
The Fed Chair’s speech in Philadelphia today did not depart significantly from her previous comments on the U.S. economic outlook, risks to the baseline forecast, and how Fed policy might evolve from here. One apparent change, which markets already had concluded, is that a federal funds rate hike to 0.50% at next week’s FOMC meeting […] More
FOMC Minutes and a Missing Plane Rattle Market Nerves
May 19, 2016
A wide range of commodities have dropped sharply, including overnight declines of 1.5% in gold, 1.9% in oil and over 2.0% in copper. Stocks and bonds also suffered. Share prices dropped 1.3% in New Zealand and Singapore, 1.2% in India, 1.0% in Hong Kong, 0.8% in Taiwan, 0.6% in Indonesia and Australia, and 0.5% in […] More
FOMC Preview
April 27, 2016
Six weeks have passed since the March16 FOMC statement and ensuing press conference. My review of those events can be seen here. Since the statement’s release, the dollar has fallen 2.0% against the euro and 2.2% relative to the yen. The 10-year Treasury yield is declined ten basis points on balance, while the Dow Jones […] More
FOMC Day and an Australian Data Surprise
April 27, 2016
The Federal Open Market Committee will release a statement at 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT) on the results of its third policy meeting of 2016. The federal funds rate is not expected to change, and attention will be focused on comments regarding U.S. economic conditions and likely prospects for clues to the timing of the next […] More
