New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Continuing Financial Market Volatility on this FOMC Decision Day
January 27, 2016
The FOMC will release a U.S. monetary policy statement at 19:00 GMT (14:00 EST). The statement this time will not be accompanied by new forecasts or a subsequent press conference. The federal funds rate was hiked at the prior meeting in mid-December, so a further increase at this one never appeared likely. The current interest […] More
Central Bank Watch
Magyar Nemzeti Bank
January 26, 2016
Hungary’s base rate was left at 1.35% as expected after the first monetary council meeting of 2016. This level represents a record low. From March through July of last year, it was cut 15 basis points each monthly meeting and dropped to 1.35% from 2.10% as a result. Today’s statement talks of slower growth, a […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Chinese Equities Record Second Largest Fall This Month
January 26, 2016
The Shanghai Composite index plunged 6.4% to a 13-month low and is now down almost 50% since last June. Although the yuan is unchanged on the day, there’s much concern that it will devalue considerably further given the very high pace of Chinese capital outflows. In other equity market action around the Pacific Rim, stocks […] More
Deeper Analysis
World Economic Outlook (WEO)
January 25, 2016
The IMF released an update of its World Economic Outlook last week, which again reduced projected GDP growth. Officials now expect world real GDP to expand 3.4% this year, down from forecasts of 3.6% made last October and 3.8% predicted six months ago. Brazil was the object of one of the Fund’s largest downgrades, with […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Israel: No Change in Interest Rate but Dovish Statement Released
January 25, 2016
Eleven months have passed since the last Israeli central bank interest rate cut, a reduction of 15 basis points to 0.10%. From a peak of 3.25%, the rate previously had been cut by 75 basis points each year from 2011 through 2014. At 0.1%, Israel is one of many central banks with either a negative […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Investor Resilience in the Face of Weak German, British and Japanese Data and a 3% Drop in Oil
January 25, 2016
The Japanese yen rose 0.4% against the dollar, and the Nikkei-225 index of Japanese share prices climbed 0.9% in spite of customs clearance data showing an 18.0% on-year plunge in imports and a 8.0% drop in exports. From November to December, exports dived 3.8%, and imports plunged 4.0%. The trade balance was in surplus by […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Investor Resilience in the Face of Weak German, British and Japanese Data and a 3% Drop in Oil
January 25, 2016
The Japanese yen rose 0.4% against the dollar, and the Nikkei-225 index of Japanese share prices climbed 0.9% in spite of customs clearance data showing an 18.0% on-year plunge in imports and a 0.8% drop in exports. From November to December, exports dived 3.8%, and imports plunged 4.0%. The trade balance was in surplus by […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
January 22, 2016
Central Bank Scene: Interest rate policy meetings are being held at the Federal Reserve (no press conference to follow), Bank of Japan (where new price and growth forecasts will be unveiled), Reserve Bank of New Zealand, South African Reserve Bank, Bank of Colombia, Bank of Israel, Magyar Nemzeti Bank, and Bank of Russia. Politics: Portuguese […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Belief that Oil Prices Have Bottomed Grabs Market
January 22, 2016
In this early year of extreme market volatility, movements in oil — mostly downward until now — have dictated the tone in stocks, bonds, currencies and other commodities each day. From as low as $26.19 per barrel (weakest since May 2003) two days ago to as high as 31.04 per barrel today, West Texas Intermediate […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
What to Make of Three Helter Skelter Weeks that Felt Like a Year
January 21, 2016
Central bankers tend to be cautious and not prone to scrapping a forecast on the basis of a couple of difficult weeks when developments haven’t jived with baseline assumptions. But there was the ECB President today declaring that “downside risks have increased again and citing a trio of causes — increased uncertainty surrounding emerging markets, […] More
