Yellen
Markets Wonder What Yellen Will Say Today
November 17, 2016
Thursday is being dominated by Fed Chair Yellen’s morning testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. It will be her first remarks since Donald Trump was elected president on an agenda of more stimulative fiscal policy. She will not doubt be asked how such might affect the trajectory of central bank interest rates. Other […] More
Expected U.S. Inflation Moves Up
October 17, 2016
Janet Yellen’s wide-ranging speech before the weekend appears to have lifted price expectations. The Fed Chair seemed to favor letting inflation exceed target temporarily. Share and bond prices, as well as oil are generally softer. So is the dollar, sterling and some emerging market currencies like the Turkish lira. Turkey’s jobless rate jumped 0.5 percentage […] More
Rising Expectations of a Fed Rate Hike before Yearend
August 26, 2016
Today’s focus is on Janet Yellen’s address in Wyoming this morning. Ahead of that speech, markets are pricing more than even odds of a hike in the federal funds rate at one of the three remaining FOMC meetings this year and up to a 30% probability officials act at the September meeting. The dollar lost […] More
Stocks Fall and Dollar Rally Pauses
August 25, 2016
Today’s shocker came from the German IFO Institute’s monthly business climate index, which dived 2.1 points in August to a 6-month low of 106.2. Current conditions (down 2.0 points to a 7-month low) and business expectations (off 2.0 points to a 6-month trough) shared equally in this considerably weaker than expected outcome. Several data reports […] More
Modestly Softer Dollar
June 22, 2016
Dollar slippage so far today amounts to 0.6% against the Aussie dollar, 0.5% versus the kiwi, 0.4% relative to sterling and the euro, 0.3% vis-a-vis the yen and loonie and 0.2% against the yuan. Janet Yellen will be reprising her semi-annual testimony on monetary policy and the U.S. economy, this time before the House Financial […] More
Eroded Confidence in Central Banks
June 16, 2016
The yen leaped as high as 103.55 per dollar from 105.95 at the Wednesday close following the Bank of Japan’s decision not to change policy settings at its June meeting. The Nikkei tumbled 3.1% to 15,434, and the 10-year JGB yield is at -0.21%. Investors were bummed out by Janet Yellen’s press conference yesterday. While […] More
Continuing Brexit Concerns and FOMC Day
June 15, 2016
A fifth published poll of British voters gives an edge to those favoring an exit from the European Union. Today’s main event will be the FOMC statement due at 18:00 GMT and subsequent press conference. China made news in three ways earlier today. First, MSCI announced it will not include equities in its indices. The second […] More
Yellen’s Speech Today and the Dollar Outlook
June 6, 2016
The Fed Chair’s speech in Philadelphia today did not depart significantly from her previous comments on the U.S. economic outlook, risks to the baseline forecast, and how Fed policy might evolve from here. One apparent change, which markets already had concluded, is that a federal funds rate hike to 0.50% at next week’s FOMC meeting […] More
Markets Moved by Fed Rhetoric and British Opinion Surveys
June 6, 2016
With less than three weeks until the U.K. voter referendum on whether to remain part of the European Union, two surveys showed more people wanting to exit than to stay, although the margin was narrow in each case. Sterling has fallen 0.7% against the dollar, but the Ftse is 1.0% stronger. Commodities are up in […] More
Firmer Commodity Prices
May 26, 2016
Crude oil (+0.7%) and a wide spectrum of industrial metal prices firmed overnight. WTI touched a high of $49.97 per barrel, and brent surpassed $50.00. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard is the latest Fed official to indicate that a June interest rate hike may be in play. He spoke of tightening U.S. labor market […] More
