Weak Euro Helping Europe and Hurting the United States

July 23, 2010

In disinflationary or deflationary times, it pays to have a depreciating currency.  This lesson was underscored in the Great Depression when Britain went off the gold standard before the United States.  The pound fell, and Britain’s economy faired better than America’s.  The lines of causation between exchange rate changes and economic fundamentals do not only […] More

Currencies More Sensitive to Global Growth Than Growth in Particular Economies

July 9, 2010

A more resilient euro has coincided with better-than-expected European data, but the rise from $1.1878 in early June doesn’t reflect strong confidence the short-term to medium-term economic outlook for the region.  Industrial production during May recorded monthly advances of 2.6% in Germany, 1.7% in France, 1.0% in Italy, 2.6% in Sweden and 0.7% in Britain.  […] More

Swissy Strengthens, Kiwi Weakens

June 28, 2010

The summit of G-20 leaders in Toronto over the weekend released a statement that had something for everybody. Omitted any reference to the yuan or, more generally, foreign exchange conditions and policy coordination. Identified a strengthening recovery as the key near-term priority. Warned of the downside risk from a synchronized fiscal adjustment across several major […] More

Easter Holiday 2010 Finds Key Currencies Marching to Different Beats

April 1, 2010

The euro’s first-quarter range of $1.4882 – $1.3268 lay entirely within calendar 2009’s high-low boundaries of $1.5144 and $1.2458.  Until a week ago, euro momentum had been adverse.  It subsequently rallied 2.4% to $1.359 but remains 3.5% below the mid-point of this year’s trading range.  At times, perceptions that the euro area’s growth prospects are […] More

The Dollar Express

February 19, 2010

The dollar is coming off yet another solid week.  While attention continued to be riveted on the high debt and deficits of Euroland’s peripheral countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland, the dollar scored its largest advances of the week against the yen, a new development, and sterling, which is an old story. The yen […] More

Interview Discussing Policies of the Swiss National Bank and Bank of Japan

December 18, 2009

Click here for my interview with ForexTV discussing the franc’s appreciation though 1.50 per euro, what the Swiss National Bank might do in response, and the Bank of Japan’s declaration of war against deflation. More