German orders
Inflation Surprises Persisting, Central Banks Reacting, and Investors Fretting about What Lies Just Ahead
October 6, 2021
Against the backdrop of central banks reacting to higher-than-forecast inflation, the dollar continues to be a well-bid currency. The weighted DXY dollar index came within a 0.05-point whisker overnight of matching its 52-week high set last November. The U.S. currency also rose 1.1% against the kiwi and Mexican peso, 0.7% versus the euro and Aussie […] More
Stampede Out of Risky Assets
December 6, 2018
Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.9% overnight, and share prices are down even more sharply in the United States, Canada, U.K., Germany, France, Spain, China, Hong Kong. 10-year sovereign debt yields have climbed 14 and 10 basis points in Italy and Greece but fallen 8 bps in the U.K., 7 bps in the U.S., 5 bps in […] More
Thursday Summary Notes
September 6, 2018
Several U.S. data reports were released. Productivity, which rose 1.1% in 2017, leaped 2.9% in the second quarter of 2018 and 1.3% from a year earlier. Unit labor costs fell 1.0% and were 1.9% higher than in 2Q17. Jobless insurance claims fell by 10K to 203K last week. ADP reported a lower-than-expected 163K estimated rise […] More
Fear Time
February 6, 2018
FDR famously declared that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself, and markets have been finding plenty of that since share prices crested at the end of the week ending January 26th. The DOW is already down nearly 1% today and has dropped 9.2% in just over six sessions. Tuesday equity losses […] More
Trump Comments, More PMI Surveys, and Some Central Bank Signals
November 6, 2017
President Trump in Japan returned to his call for “fair” bilateral trade relationships. To reduce Japan’s surplus with America, he’d like to see more Japanese buying of U.S. military equipment. Euroland’s service sector and composite purchasing managers indices slipped to a 2-month low of 55.0 and 56.0, respectively. Each result was revised up a tenth […] More
Sell-Off in European Sovereign Debt
July 6, 2017
Amid recent speculation that the policy stance of the European Central Bank may be nearing a turning point, a French government debt auction drew weak interest and triggered a broad rise in regional sovereign debt yields. 10-year yields rose 7 basis points in France and Germany, 6 bps in Italy, and 5 bps in the […] More
Dollar and Sterling Strengthen but Oil Steps Back
December 6, 2016
The dollar is unchanged against the pound but up 0.4% against the yen, loonie, kiwi and Australian dollar. The U.S. currency also rose 0.2% overnight relative to the euro and Swiss franc. An appeal is being heard in British courts regarding the legality of leaving the EU based solely on a voter referendum. Sterling has […] More
Dollar Slightly Softer Ahead of U.S. Jobs and Trade Data
August 5, 2016
The dollar overnight lost 0.5% against the kiwi, 0.4% versus the Aussie dollar and sterling and 0.2% relative to the yen and euro. The dollar is steady against the loonie, Swiss franc and yuan. Stocks have responded favorably to the Bank of England’s shock and awe response to the Brexit vote. Share prices in the […] More
Blame It on the British: Bond Yield Distress Extended
July 6, 2016
The 10-year Treasury yield touched a fresh low for the move earlier today of 1.318%. It closed on June 23 at 1.75% just before the shocking Brexit vote result became known. The 10-year Japanese JGB is off two basis points at negative 0.27%. The sovereign debt yields in Germany and Switzerland are also below zero. […] More
Gold and Yen Stronger but Stocks, Bond Yields, and Emerging Market Currencies Decline
April 5, 2016
The yen is 0.6% stronger on balance, powered by a fresh wave of safe-haven seeking capital flows. Many service sector PMI reports were disappointing. Japan’s index and its composite PMI fell to one-year lows, for example. The yen touched 110.26 per dollar, its most appreciated level since October 2014. Comex gold rose 1.3% to $1,231.59. […] More
