Fear Time

February 6, 2018

FDR famously declared that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself, and markets have been finding plenty of that since share prices crested at the end of the week ending January 26th. The DOW is already down nearly 1% today and has dropped 9.2% in just over six sessions. Tuesday equity losses […] More

Dollar Strengthens and U.S. Stocks Extend Rally

December 4, 2017

The mounting likelihood of a huge U.S. tax cut is dominating world financial markets. The possibility of a federal government shutdown on Friday is not impacting. Sterling has also been in demand, aided by more constructive Brexit discussions. Overnight dollar gains amount to 1.1% against the kiwi, 0.9% relative to the Swiss franc, 0.6% vis-a-vis […] More

DOW Tops 22K and an Indian Interest Rate Cut

August 2, 2017

The DJIA moved as high as 22,036, topping 22K for the first time ever, but is currently hovering just below that level. Asia got its first interest rate cut of 2017 as the Reserve Bank of India’s repo and reverse repo rates were reduced 25 basis points to 6.0% and 5.75%, respectively. The reductions had […] More

Stock Market Declines Associated with Recessions

August 20, 2011

U.S. recessions are inevitably associated with weakening share prices.  A recession from December 1969 to January 1970 saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average drop 35.9% from 985 on December 3, 1968 to 631 on May 26, 1970.  The next recession occurred between November 1973 and March 1975.  The DOW fell 45.1% from 1,052 on January […] More

An Updated Look at How the U.S. Economy Performed Under Democratic and Republican Presidencies

August 8, 2011

The most visited post among all 3,002 articles on the Currency Thoughts web site remains one of the first, a comparative study of how five U.S. vital signs behaved when the president was a Democrat and when that person was Republican.  That article screened on August 19, 2008, less than a month before the collapse […] More

A Slippery Monday For the DOW

May 24, 2010

Stock markets crested four weeks ago today on April 26.  The subsequent downturn had avoided a bad Monday until today, which was good.  Several really big historical stock market crashes have clustered around Mondays.  Immediately following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the DOW fell by 4.4% on September 15, 2008, 3.3% on the following Monday, […] More

Long-Term Slumps in Stock Prices

May 20, 2010

In an update yesterday entitled U.S. Unemployment, CPI Inflation, Stock Prices and Fed Policy, I quantified several data trends, which make a rate increase by the Fed this year unlikely.  This posting looks in further depth at the prolonged weakness of stock prices, which is already more than a decade long.  It’s not limited to […] More