Central Bank Watch
A Sixth South African Central Bank Interest Rate Cut
November 20, 2025
Based on their improved inflation outlook, policymakers at the South African Reserve Bank unanimously decided to cut their repo rate by a further 25 basis points to 6.75% and bringing the cumulative drop since September 2024 to 150 basis points. “Because of downside surprises [in recent inflation data results], together with a stronger rand, and […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Reacting to Nvidia’s Sales Leap while Awaiting U.S. Employment Situation Report and Japanese Fiscal Stimulus
November 20, 2025
News of a 62% year-on-year leap in Nvidia sales ignited a solid rebound in U.S. equities. At 08:00 in pre-open futures trading, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were showing rebounds of 1.7% and 1.2%. Investors are also awaiting the belated September jobs data to be released in 30 minutes but also seven weeks after such […] More
Central Bank Watch
Comment on FOMC Minutes from October 28-29 Meeting
November 19, 2025
This was the FOMC meeting at which, according to Chairman Jerome Powell, strongly variant opinions emerged regarding the appropriate future monetary policy. The minutes state the obvious dilemma caused by a) U.S. inflation picking up earlier this year and still remaining more elevated than the committee’s ultimate target of 2.0%; but also b) employment growth […] More
Central Bank Watch
Icelandic Central Bank Rate Cut
November 19, 2025
A 25-basis point cut in the Bank of Iceland‘s 7-day term rate today to 7.25% had not been expected by analysts. That was the fourth reduction this year and follows two cuts in the final quarter of 2024. Altogether, the rate has dropped two percentage points from the 9.25% peak held from August 2023 until […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Sino-Japanese Geopolitical Tensions Reflected in Weak Yen and Nikkei Losses
November 19, 2025
Ramifications continued on Wednesday from Prime Minister Takaichi’s parliamentary comment that Chinese steps to seize control of Taiwan could elicit a military response from Japan. That insinuation during a Q&A session led to a forceful verbal response from Beijing officials. The yen fell another 0.4% overnight against the dollar and at 156.2 has depreciated by […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Look Out Below!
November 18, 2025
A plunge of as much as 29.2% in the price of Bitcoin from its early October high of $126,250 six weeks ago to today’s intra-day low of $89,369 this Tuesday reflects the spoils of a tariff policy gone bad, mounting unease over the equity bubble surrounding artificial intelligence, and the unraveling social cohesion of America. […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Some Bottom-Fishing while Awaiting Delayed U.S. Data
November 17, 2025
(165) Monday saw a tentative and partial reversal of sharp financial market movements last week. The price of Bitcoin rebounded 1.2%. Ten-year sovereign debt yields have settled back four basis points in Italy, three bps in the United States, Spain and Great Britain, and two bps in Germany and France. Alternatively, the 10-year Japanese JGB […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: November 15 – 21, 2025
November 14, 2025
Central Banks: Monetary policy stances will be reviewed in Jamaica, South Africa, China, Hungary, Indonesia and Iceland. Minutes from the October FOMC meeting will be published, and Williams, Logan, Goolsbee, Kashkari are among the Federal Reserve officials whose public remarks may create headlines. Mann, Pill and Dhringra of the Bank of England, as well as […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Widely Shared Big Losses
November 14, 2025
Yesterday’s stock market sell-off has extended into Friday. One catalyst was the Trump administration’s suggestion that some key data points not collected during the federal shutdown may never be known. This surprise dropped on an investment community already showing rising concern that equity values, especially among in the tech sector, were unsustainably inflated. News that […] More
Larry's Blog
Say It Once, and It’s Memorized
November 13, 2025
As a slogan designed to resonate with frustrated residents in the United States, MAGA is an amazingly effective political hook. Just four words long — Make America Great Again — captures the American Dream of betterment, with each generation pushing closer to fulfilling the unalienable rights of the Declaration of Independence. It’s so easy to […] More
