Deeper Analysis
June and Second Quarter 2025 in Figures
June 30, 2025
The dollar weakened sharply against most other currencies during the second quarter, including in the final month of June. The advance in U.S, equities outperformed stock markets in most other currencies in both time comparisons. A rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield in April-May was mostly reversed during June. The price of oil fell […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Quarter-End Ushers in Crunch Time for U.S. Budget Bill and Trade Talks as Well as A Flood of Data
June 30, 2025
(185) It’s do-or-die time for President Trump’s big beautiful budget tax and spending bill, and the July 9th deadline for bilateral trade deals that would greatly scale back threatened huge reciprocal tariffs is just over a week away as well. The U.S. senate is closing in on the final debate and vote on the bill, […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: June 28-July 4, 2025
June 27, 2025
Central Banks: The National Bank of Poland will be reviewing monetary policy. The Bank of Japan’s quarterly corporate Tankan survey will be published, and minutes of the ECB meeting get released. A forum on central banking is being sponsored by the European Central Bank at which many central bankers will be expressing views. Holidays and […] More
Central Bank Watch
Fourth Straight Mexican 50-Basis Point Central Bank Rate Cut
June 27, 2025
Canadian monthly industrial production and GDP respectively contracted in April by 0.1% and 0.9%, respectively. The Bank of Mexico lowered the overnight interbank interest rate by an as-expected 50 basis points after yesterday’s scheduled policy meeting. The 4-1 decision drew one dissent against changing the rate’s level. Half-percentage point cuts had also been undertaken in […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
U.S. Trade Deals With China and India, Rising Fed Interest Rate Cut Hopes & Many Data Releases
June 27, 2025
President Trump is on a winning streak. A drumbeat of successes during the past fortnight — a successfully executed military mission in Iran, the Iranian-Israeli cease-fire, some favorable court rulings, NATO’s defense spending agreement, reported trade deals, and Powell’s more dovish-than-expected testimony — have deflected attention from the fiscal undertow and consequently enhance the chances […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Here, There and Everywhere
June 26, 2025
President Trump is back in Washington from the NATO summit in The Hague after receiving wide praise there from other attendees for achieving a cease fire between Israel and Iran, getting European nations to ante up more spending for the common defense, and setting the stage for renewed talks with Iran as soon as next […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Pausing While Watching Middle East and Awaiting Second Round of Powell Testimony
June 25, 2025
A fragile truce in the Iran-Israeli military conflict is mostly holding. Today is day two of a three-day NATO summit in The Hague. Agreement on a sharp increase in defense spending heads the agenda. In the wake of Middle Eastern developments over the past week, U.S. President Trump’s reception has been unexpectedly positive from what […] More
Deeper Analysis
U.S. Data and Powell Testimony Rundown
June 24, 2025
Despite scalding criticism of Jerome Powell by President Trump over the past few days, the chairman’s testimony remained closely aligned with his press conference last week. The nuanced message depicts a rate cuts as highly likely during the second half of 2025; justifies the lack of a cut during the year’s first half by the […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Fragile Truce Between Iran & Israel, Powell’s Upcoming Testimony and Another Sign of Slow Improvement in German Business Sentiment
June 24, 2025
In a triumph of geopolitics over economics, financial markets rallied initially overnight on news of the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, but that momentum paused on doubts the truce will hold. Fed Chairman Powell’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to congress (formerly known as the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony) kicks off at 10:00 EDT today before the […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Awaiting Iran’s Response and Digesting Flash Purchasing Manager Surveys for June and More Fed-Bashing by Trump
June 23, 2025
(186) The weighted DXY dollar index strengthened 0.7% overnight on refuge-seeking hot-money inflows. Greenback gains have been led by jumps of 1.2% against the Japanese yen and Australian dollar and of 1.3% versus the South Korean won, followed by rises of 0.6% relative to sterling and 0.5% vis-a-vis the euro and Canadian dollar. Trump is […] More
