New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Lower Bond Yields Takes Some Shine Off Dollar and Lends Stocks a Respite
October 24, 2023
Ten-year sovereign debt yields slid overnight by four basis points in Germany and Spain, three bps in Great Britain, France and Italy, and two basis points in Japan. The 10-year Treasury yield is holding onto yesterday’s closing level of 4.85%, 14 bps below last Thursday’s close. The weighted DXY dollar index and bilateral dollar value […] More
Deeper Analysis
What Might “Higher for Longer” Imply
October 23, 2023
U.S. financial markets have lately been spooked not by the expectation that the federal funds rate will be 5.25-5.50% federal funds rate is going to be raised considerably higher but rather by the spin of central bank comments that once the rate crests, the ensuing easing cycle will not commence soon afterward and that the […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Continuing Scramble Out of Equities and Into Bonds and Crypto
October 23, 2023
Equity markets in the Pacific Rim fell Monday by 1.6% in Indonesia, 1.5% in China, 1.3% in India, 1.2% in New Zealand, and 0.8% in Japan, South Korea, Australia and Singapore. Hong Kong’s market was shut in observance of the Chung Yeung Festival. Share prices so far are down 0.9% in Spain, 0.8% in Germany, […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: October 21-27, 2023
October 20, 2023
Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed at central banks in Canada, Russia, Georgia, Turkey and at the European Central Bank. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and ECB President Lagarde hold post-meeting press conferences, and Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock, Fed Chairman Powell, and FED Governor Barr give speeches. Events: Argentine elections are scheduled […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Financial Markets Remain Unsettled in Wake of Powell and Biden Speeches
October 20, 2023
Despite conceding that officials are carefully monitoring the recent sharp increase in bond yields, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s message remained hawkish overall. Inflation is still too high, a restrictive stance will be needed for quite a while longer, and further rate hikes may be required. The U.S. economy has shown resilience in the face of […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank Indonesia
October 19, 2023
Officials at Bank Indonesia sprung a surprise 25-basis point interest rate hike on investors to 6.0%. There had been just one previous increase in 2023, also of 25 basis points way back in January that had at the time seemed to culminate 200 basis points of tightening during 2022. Indonesian consumer price inflation is currently […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
A Further Surge in Market Interest Rates Ahead of Biden & Powell Speeches Later Today
October 19, 2023
The 30-year Treasury yield jumped to a new high overnight of 5.07%, and the 10-year Treasury gained 7 basis points and is within 3 basis points of 5.00% versus 3.68% at the start of 2023. Surging interest rates continue to drain enthusiasm from stocks. Share prices overnight tumbled 2.5% in Hong Kong, 1.9% in Japan […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Mideast Strains Escalate But Also An Upside Surprise from Chinese Data
October 18, 2023
Diplomat efforts to prevent a broadening war in the Middle East took a big hit from the missile strike on a hospital in Gaza that took hundreds of Palestinian lives. Like the Reichstag fire in February 1933 that cemented Hitler’s dictatorship, there have been mixed accusations regarding the perpetrators, and their full identity may never […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Choppy Markets and Only a Few Data Reports
October 17, 2023
Investors are sifting through cross currents, worried about what may evolve in the Mideast but heartened by early corporate earnings news and hopes that central bank interest rates may be close to peak. Philadelphia Fed District President Harker opined that an additional interest rate hike now would be ill-advised. Equities rose in the Pacific Rim […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Another Upward Push in Long-Term Interest Rates Amid Geopolitical Risks and Stubborn Inflation
October 16, 2023
Diplomatic efforts to prevent a widening Mideast war hasn’t ended Israel’s retaliatory siege of the Gaza Strip. Clashes with Hezbollah to the North and Syria to the East have escalated. Iranian saber-rattling has picked up. In other political news over the weekend, New Zealand’s Labor Party government has been defeated by the moderately conservative National […] More
