Deeper Analysis
Third Quarter 2023 in Figures
September 29, 2023
Market sentiment about future monetary polices underwent significant change over the course of the third quarter. While interest rates were raised further by the ECB, Fed, and Bank of England, the catalyst for the transformation came from rhetorical signals that high rates would be maintained for much longer and recede much more slowly than imagined […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: September 30 – October 6, 2023
September 29, 2023
Central Banks: Interest rate policies will be reviewed in Australia, New Zealand, India, Iceland, Romania and Poland. The Bank of Japan publishes results of its quarterly survey of corporate conditions and expectations. Holidays and Events: Chinese markets will be shut all week in observance of the 74th anniversary of the Communist revolution. One more year […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Monthend, Quarterend, and a Flood of Rain and Data Reported
September 29, 2023
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 4.55% just prior to 08:30 EDT, down from Thursday’s intra-day and 194-month high of 4.68%. This respite was aided by some remarks from Fed officials suggesting that coming rate moves have not been decided yet. German, French, Spanish and Italian 10-year sovereign debt yields are 7-8 basis points […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Spotlight Shining on Oil Prices
September 28, 2023
Oil inventory data on Wednesday sent the price of West Texas Intermediate up to a 14-month high of $95.03 per barrel overnight, but the price subsequently settled back and is currently 0.5% below yesterday’s close. Investors or on tenterhooks to see where the oil price heads next. An additional concern, which has buttressed sovereign debt […] More
Central Bank Watch
Eighth Straight Central Bank Rate Hike in Thailand
September 27, 2023
The Bank of Thailand surprised central bank watchers with yet another unanimous 25-basis point interest rate hike to a ten-year high of 2.50%. The rate benchmark had been 0.50% from May 2020 until an initial 25-bp increase in August 2022, and the latest on-year increase of CPI inflation (0.9%) remained below the target corridor of […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Shaken Confidence
September 27, 2023
German consumer confidence dropped to a 6-month low in late September with a depressed reading of -26.5. French consumer confidence fell two points to a 4-month low of 83 in September, well below its long-term mean of 100. At -11.5, Finnish consumer sentiment slid 3.5 points in September to its weakest value since February. Business […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Perfect Storm of Dysfunctional Congress, Hawkish Fed, Elevated Oil Prices Depresses Equities and Bond Prices but Dollar Stays Well-Bid
September 26, 2023
The U.S. is careening toward a government shutdown that could tarnish its credit rating. Kashkari and Bowman are the latest Fed officials to warn of likely interest rate hikes next quarter. Although down 0.7% so far today, the high price of WTI oil, which touched $91.5 per barrel last week, remains a threat to the […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next week’s menu: September 23-29, 2023
September 22, 2023
Central Banks: In addition to the release of Bank of Japan Board meeting minutes, monetary policies will be reviewed in the Czech Republic, Colombia, Mexico, Hungary and Thailand. Special Event: In the coming final week of the third quarter and U.S. fiscal year, market attention will become increasingly focused on efforts to avert a government […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank Rate Changes in Sweden, Norway, Turkey and Brazil
September 22, 2023
The Swedish Riksbank‘s executive board engineered a 25-basis point interest rate hike to 4.0% today, claiming that “inflationary pressures in the Swedish economy are still too high.” That compares with a zero percent rate at the start of the second quarter of 2022 and -0.50% in November 2018. Swedish inflation of 7.5% is far […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Investors Uneasy about Several Recessionary Risks
September 22, 2023
Preliminary September purchasing manager survey results out today attest to deepening economic weakness in Europe. Euroland’s composite PMI reading of 47.1 after 46.7 in August and 47.0 in July are consistent with a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter drop in GDP in 3Q. Such would represent a fourth straight listless quarter following a 0.1% dip in the final […] More
