Deeper Analysis
Third Quarter 2022 in Figures
September 30, 2022
3Q 2022 was a stellar quarter for the dollar but a terrible time for equities and sovereign debt values. Almost all central banks are now on the interest rate hike bandwagon, with the Bank of Japan being the most notable exception. While oil prices lost about a quarter of their value in the period and […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: October 1 – 7, 2022
September 30, 2022
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews scheduled in Iceland, Australia, Poland, New Zealand, Peru, Romania and Israel. The Bank of Japan quarterly Tankan survey of corporate conditions and expectations and minutes from the last European Central Bank Governing Council meeting will be published. Many Fed officials have public speaking engagements during the week, and so does […] More
Central Bank Watch
Indian Monetary Policy Tightened As Well
September 30, 2022
Excessive inflation also concerns officials at the Reserve Bank of India, who raised the repo rate by an expected half percentage point to 5.90% at this weeks policy review. Three previous hikes in May, June and August had totaled 140 basis points, more than reversing 115 basis points of ease enacted in the first half […] More
Uncategorized
Bank of Mexico Interest Rate Hiked Again
September 30, 2022
The Bank of Mexico overnight interbank rate has been increased by 75 basis points to 9.25%. The size of the increase matches the prior move in June and brings the combined increase since June 2021 to 550 basis points. The Governing Board expresses continuing determination “to set a policy rate that is consistent at all […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Third Quarter Ushered Out With Disturbing Inflation Data, More Central Bank Hikes,High Tension in Asia, a Mega-Storm in the U.S. Southeast, and a Strong Dollar
September 30, 2022
The weighted DXY dollar index rose 0.2% overnight but is 2% below Wednesday’s peak. The dollar advanced so far today by 0.4% against the euro, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and sterling but just 0.1% versus the yen. Thursday had seen heavy selling of equities. Share prices today closed down 1.8% in Japan, 1.2% in Australia, […] More
Central Bank Watch
Czech National Bank Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged for Second Meeting in a Row
September 29, 2022
The Czech National Bank had raised its two-week repo rate at every scheduled policy review between June 2021 and June 2022. Before doing this, the rate had been pinned at 0.25% since May 2020, and CPI inflation had been at 2.9% when rate normalization began. The string of rate increases was interrupted at the August […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Sell-Off Resumes
September 29, 2022
Sovereign debt selling resumed this Thursday, sending 10-year government debt yields up by 20 basis points in Italy, 19 bps in Great Britain, 16 bps in France and the Netherlands, 15 bps in Germany and Spain, and nine basis points in the United States. Share prices are down 1-2% in the U.K., Germany, France, Italy […] More
Central Bank Watch
Thailand and Mauritius Central Bank Rate Hikes
September 28, 2022
The Bank of Thailand’s policy rate was lifted 25 basis points as expected to 1.0%. That was the second such increase, the first being done just last months. At 1.0%, the rate remains 25 basis points less than Thailand’s pre-pandemic level of 1.25%. CPI inflation had climbed to 7.86% by August, but BOT officials project […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
U.S. Official Rhetoric Restores Dollar’s Upward Trajectory
September 28, 2022
There will be no Plaza Accord this time, according to U.S. National Economic Council Director Brian Deese. The dollar had doubled in value against such currencies as the German mark from late 1980 to early 1985 and was generating big strains in trade flows. The dollar had corrected partly in the spring but was threatening […] More
Deeper Analysis
Rundown of Tuesday U.S. Data Releases
September 27, 2022
Home price inflation decelerated in July to a 15-month low of 16.1% according to the Case-Shiller index and to a 17-month low of 13.9% meaured by the FHFA index. The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey index weakened 4.3 points to a 2-month low of -17.2 in September, but the Richmond Fed manufacturing index recovered eight index […] More
