New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Policies Driving Currency Markets as More Evidence Emerges of Slower Global Growth
February 13, 2019
Industrial Production in the euro area fell 0.9% in December, more than double the expected slide after a 1.7% drop recorded in November. This resulted in a 4.2% 12-month rate of decline, the biggest on-year contraction since November of 20o9. December output among the common currency bloc’s five largest economies fell from end-2017 levels by […] More
Larry's Blog
Happy 210th Birthday, Abe and Charles
February 12, 2019
Abraham Lincoln and Charles Darwin were each born on February 12, 1809. No single day in history has yielded a duo that arguably went on to exert as much influence on mankind as that one. It is with a touch of irony that from present time one looks back on the legacy of those men. […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Greater Optimism on A U.S. Border Security Deal
February 12, 2019
The U.S. Congress reached an accord “in principle” on a border security deal. Details still need to be fleshed out, and it’s not clear if President Trump is prepared to sign such. But the development inspired enough hope to lift U.S. share prices about 1% in early Tuesday trading. Stocks earlier rose 2.6% in Japan, […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Time Running Out on Several Matters
February 11, 2019
The temporary suspension of the U.S. Federal Government shutdown ends on Friday. A deal between the White House and Congressional Democrats that meets President Trump’s insistence on border wall funding is not in sight. Perhaps he should bankroll the project out of his personal wealth or establish a Go-Fund-Me campaign to raise the money. Chinese […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
February 8, 2019
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Sweden and New Zealand. Powell, Mester, Bostic and George of the Federal Reserve will be speaking publicly. Holidays and Special Events: Japan closed Monday for Foundation Day, and the Eurogroup meets that day as well. British Prime Minister May to update Parliament on Wednesday on the state of Brexit […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Global Stocks Down after Trump/Xi Meeting Scrapped
February 8, 2019
The revelation that President Trump will not be meeting with Chinese President Xi before March 1 dampened hopes for a trade deal, weighed on general concerns regarding global growth, and sent share prices down 2.0% in Japan, 1.2% in South Korea and India, 1.0% in Spain, and 0.9% in Germany. The Dow and S&P fell […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Aussie Dollar Down More than 1% Overnight
February 6, 2019
An overnight speech by Bank of Governor Lowe, not Donald Trump’s delayed State of the Union address, stole the currency market spotlight today. Forward guidance from the Reserve Bank of Australia had for some time pointed to an eventual interest rate increase, but Lowe said that in line with shifting economic data and changing global […] More
Deeper Analysis
U.S. Nonmanufacturing PMI and Euroland Service Sector PMI
February 5, 2019
Service sector growth slowed last month but remained positive in both the United States and the euro area. The ISM-compiled non-manufacturing PMI fell 1.3 points, while the IHS-compiled Ezone services PMI dropped by 1.0 point. The differential between those two data series narrowed slightly but remained significantly U.S.-advantageous at +6.6 points. The U.S. advantage in […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
More Evidence of Weakening Growth in Europe and Trepidation Ahead of President Trump’s State of the Union Address Tonight
February 5, 2019
The conclusion of Euroland’s service-sector and composite purchasing manager surveys tells it all: The business environment is at its most challenging since the height of the region’s debt crisis.” The composite Ezone PMI reading of 51.0 was at a 66-month low, and service sector activity (51.2) was near its 4-year low. From a separate report […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar Firms a Bit
February 4, 2019
Several markets including China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore are shut for the Lunar New Year holiday. Half the U.S. government shutdown reprieve has been spent, and still there is no agreement. U.S./Chinese trade talks are another continuing source of uncertainty. The dollar is 0.2-0.4% firmer against the euro, Swiss franc, loonie, Aussie […] More
