Central Bank Watch
Bank Indonesia Tightens Stance Further
November 15, 2018
The Indonesian central bank board of governors announced several changes: The 7-day reverse repo rate, deposit facility rate, and lending facility rate were hiked 25 basis points to 6.0%, 5.25%, and 6.75%. The key reverse repo rate has been lifted 7 times since mid-May for a total of 2 percentage points. Reserve requirements were also […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Down Goes the British Pound
November 15, 2018
With British Prime Minister Theresa May facing a vote of no confidence and several of her cabinet ministers resigning in protest against her Brexit deal, sterling slumped 1.5% overnight against both the dollar and euro. Weak British retail sales data were also released today, showing an unexpected 0.5% on-month drop in total sales (+2.2% on […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Japanese GDP Contracted in 3Q, while Eurozone Growth Slowed in Half
November 14, 2018
Data released this Wednesday confirmed a widening gap between economic growth in the United States on the one hand (3.5% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate SAAR last quarter) and Japan and Euroland on the other. Japanese real GDP contracted 0.3%, or 1.2% SAAR in 3Q. Personal consumption (-0.5% SAAR), public sector expenditures (-0.9%), and […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Foreign Exchange Heading into the Home Stretch Leg of 2018 Trading
November 13, 2018
The day after tomorrow will complete the 7th eighth of this calendar year. Unlike 2017, the dollar has performed well in 2018 and figures to retail resilience in the home stretch, notwithstanding an historical tendency to fade more often than not in late December. Factors that have buoyed the dollar remain in place. Three increases […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Stocks Rebound Somewhat but Situation Still Unstable
November 13, 2018
With the G20 summit in Argentina on November 30 – December 1 fast approaching, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu Yandong discussed trade issues in a phone conversation, the first high-level U.S.-Sino talks of any sort on this explosive issue. A breakthrough was not reported, but some equity markets bounced higher after […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Euro Sinks 0.6% to 16-Month Low of $1.1240
November 12, 2018
The optics went very poorly for U.S. President Trump at centennial WWI Armistice observances in Paris, where he had to scrap a cemetery visit, was left out of other shared activities, heard a sharp rebuke of nationalism by French President Macron, and endured a stream of troubling political developments happening back in Washington. Currency markets […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
November 9, 2018
Central Banks: Monetary policy reviews in Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Mexico and The Philippines. Quarles, Powell, Kashkari and Evans of the Federal Reserve speak publicly. Holidays and Special Events: U.S. Veterans Day on Monday. Brazil observes Proclamation of the Republic Day on Thursday. President Trump visits Europe to attend the WWI centenary celebration of the […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Share Prices End Week with a Thump
November 9, 2018
Equities today lost 2.6% in Hong Kong, 2.0% in Australia, 1.7% in India, 1.4% in China, 1.2% in Taiwan, 1.3% in New Zealand, and 1.1% in Japan. Share prices in key European markets are down 1.3% in Italy, 1.0% in Spain and Britain, 0.9% in France, and 0.6% in Switzerland and Germany. Oil has fallen […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Keeps 2-2.25% Federal Funds Target Range as Expected
November 8, 2018
With no press conference planned, the Federal Open Market released a statement at 14:00 EST (15:00 GMT) that is very similar to the previous meeting’s one, when policy was tightened. As expected this time the fed funds target was left unchanged, but no doubt was left about more rate normalization as officials reiterated the clause “in […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC Preview
November 8, 2018
FOMC policy has become an epitome of predictability in rate-rising cycles. For decades, the Fed didn’t even announce policy changes, and it could take some time to discern that one had occurred by watching open market operations and determining behavior that couldn’t be explained by seasonal and other special factors. Policymakers have come to believe […] More
