Archive for October 31st, 2008

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Weekly Foreign Exchange Insights: October 31st

October 31, 2008

Currency and equity markets were strongly correlated in October, each moving to the ebb and flow of risk aversion. There was a massive unwinding of yen carry trades during the month as risk aversion fell to nil but not so much during the final week of the month as money markets thawed somewhat. When risk […] More


Back By Popular Demand: U.S. Economic Track Records Under Different Presidencies

October 31, 2008

Back in August a week prior to the U.S. national party conventions in Denver (Dem) and Minneapolis (Rep), this site reported findings from an examination of how U.S. real GDP, employment, consumer prices, stock prices, and the dollar performed when the president was a democrat versus times when the chief executive had been a republican. […] More

No Immunity For Canada

October 31, 2008

Canada does many things right. The government budget has been in surplus for 11 straight years. Core inflation is below but close to 2.0%. The current account  surplus equaled  0.9% of GDP last year and 1.7% of GDP in the spring quarter of this year. But being so entwined with the U.S. economy in its […] More

Central Bank Watch

Bank of Japan Fails Test of Policy Presentation

October 31, 2008

Japanese officials in the past fortnight had gone to great lengths to promote a softer yen and firmer share prices. Nice progress was being made toward each goal until the Bank of Japan bungled the public relations surrounding today’s rate cut and release of new economic forecasts. The presentation of central bank policy is often […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

New Overnight Developments Abroad: Crisis Re-escalates

October 31, 2008

The Nikkei sank 5.0% when the Bank of Japan Policy Board split on the size of its rate and did a move of only 20 basis points to 0.3%.  The Dax is 4.0% lower, and the Ftse (-1.4%) and Paris Cac (-1.7%) are lower as are U.S. stock futures. Asian stocks were mixed, falling 2.5% […] More