Just a Thought on Tomorrow's U.S. Employment Report
October 2, 2008
I have a hunch that the report will be significantly worse than what U.S. macro-economists are forecasting. I do not base this opinion on a rigorous study of all the building blocks of information that such forecasts routinely comb through but on patterns I have gleaned while doing extensive forecasting of economic indicators for other […] More
Bonds and Stocks
The Allure of Gold Beckons
October 2, 2008
Whenever financial market talk turns to depression, the prophets of gold are heard as well. An article published today in Money and Markets by Larry Edelson makes a pitch for investing in gold, predicts a substantial coming depreciation in the dollar, and advises people to keep wealth highly liquid in these turbulent times. In other […] More
Currency Markets in the News
ECB Says Upside Inflation Risks Have Diminished
October 2, 2008
The new statement from the ECB Governing Council constitutes a start in preparing markets for a rate cut. This is what investors and analysts were hoping and expecting to see. Typically the ECB’s tone did not swing first circle. Inflation risks around a forecast that expects above-target readings “for some time” are still skewed to […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Overnight Developments Abroad: Euro Softer Ahead of ECB Press Conference
October 2, 2008
The U.S. Senate as expected approved a sweetened $700 billion TARP bad debt buying bill, which also includes tax cuts, higher FDIC insurance, and some earmarks. The victory margin was wide at 74-25. The House of Representatives votes tomorrow amid uncertain prospects for passage. Money market strains continue amid pessimism that TARP will solve banking […] More
