Currency Markets in the News

Euro Area Recovery Passes America’s

December 3, 2009

The first difference between the U.S. and Euroland service-sector PMIs moved out to 4.3 points in favor of Europe in November, more than twice as large as October’s spread of 2.0 points.  It was Euroland’s largest advantage since November 2008.  Service-sector activity in the United States contracted for the first time since August, while the […] More

ECB Wants to Avoid Rise in Short-Term Rates As Phase-Out of Unconventional Measures Begins

December 3, 2009

ECB President Trichet stressed over and over again that decisions not to do a fourth 12-month refinancing tender, to index the third 12-month refinancing operation, to do no more six-month operations after the one scheduled at end-1Q10 in no way whatsoever are meant to signal any bias change in the bank’s interest rate policy.  He […] More

Awaiting New ECB Forecasts Thursday And Other Critical Information

December 2, 2009

At 12:45 GMT Thursday, the ECB will announce no changes in the 1.0% short-term refinancing rate, nor in the 0.25% deposit rate or the 1.75% marginal lending rate.  That’s been the rate structure since last May and is unlikely to get modified before late 2010.  If asked at the press conference that starts at 13:30 […] More

U.S. Minus Ezone PMI-Mf’g Spread Halved

December 1, 2009

Two-thirds of October’s rise in the U.S. manufacturing PMI was reversed last month, whereas the euro zone counterpart gauge got revised upward to 51.2 from 51.0 reported initially last week. That compared favorably to a 50.7 reading in October.  The U.S. outcome was over a point lower than forecast.  Euroland’s result was near expectations. As […] More

GDP Growth and Unemployment in the United States, Japan and Germany

November 24, 2009

The first, second, and fourth largest nation-state economies of the world have emerged from deep recession, and each recorded an expansion of real gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2009.  Previous cyclical higher in GDP were reached in the first quarter of 2008 in the German and Japanese cases and in the second […] More

Bank of Japan Preview: No Rate Hike on Radar Screen

November 19, 2009

The BOJ released new quarterly forecasts at its previous Policy Board meeting on October 30, which penciled in projected core CPI inflation of minus 1.5% this fiscal year, minus 0.8% in Fiscal 2010, and minus 0.4% in Fiscal 2011 ending March 2012.  Unless that deflationary view somehow changes, a rate hike is not likely before […] More

ECB Review: New Ground Not Broken

November 5, 2009

The ECB left its deposit, refinancing and marginal lending rates at 0.25%, 1.0%, and 1.75% as expected.  Those levels have been in place since May, and today’s decision was anticipated.  Seven reductions of the refinancing rate were implemented between October 2008 and May 2009 spaced as follows: 50 bps in October 2009, 50 bps in […] More

ECB Preview

November 4, 2009

At 12:45 GMT on Thursday, the ECB is expected to announce no change in its 1.0% refinancing rate, which has been at that level since May.  Investors would also be surprised to see the disappearance of recent buzz words depicting a continuing ultra accommodative stance.  Policy is appropriate.  Although the economy is stabilizing, the recovery […] More

PMI Spread in Services Favors Euroland Over United States

November 4, 2009

PMIs U.S. Ezone   U.S. Ezone   Sum of   Services Services Spread Mf’g Mf’g Spread Spreads Feb 2008 49.7 52.3 -2.6 48.8 52.3 -3.5 -6.1 March 49.9 51.6 -1.7 49.0 52.0 -3.0 -4.7 April 51.9 52.0 -0.1 48.6 50.7 -2.1 -2.2 May 51.2 50.6 +0.6 49.3 50.6 -1.3 -0.7 June 48.8 49.1 -0.3 49.5 […] More

CPI Inflation in the Group of Seven and Implications For the Fed's Exit Strategy

November 3, 2009

According to price data released by the OECD today, on-year inflation in the Group of Seven (U.S., Euroland, Japan, Britain and Canada) printed at negative 1.0% but ranged widely between minus 2.2% in Japan and plus 1.1% in Britain.  The United States registered the biggest percentage point decline between the year to September 2008 and […] More