U.S. GDP

Comment on U.S. GDP Growth and Trade Protectionism

June 29, 2016

The second and final revision of U.S. growth between the final quarter of 2015 and the first one of 2016, released yesterday, was revised upward by 0.3 percentage points to 1.1% at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (saar).  The initial growth estimate reported in late April had been 0.5% saar.   Commentary surrounding the report […] More

Investors Shocked by BOJ’s Decision Not to Ease Policy Further

April 28, 2016

The yen climbed 2.6% against both the dollar and euro, the Japanese Nikkei plunged 3.6%, and the 10-year JGB yield fell 3 basis points to -0.09%. The dollar otherwise fell 1.2% against the kiwi and is down 0.3% relative to the loonie, Swissie, yuan, Aussie dollar and sterling.  EUR/USD is flat. In other equity news, […] More

First Quarter U.S. GDP Growth

April 20, 2016

The earliest estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of U.S. real GDP last quarter is scheduled to be released a week from tomorrow on April 28.  Other released data point to very weak growth, with a reasonable probability of a figure below 0.5% at a seasonal adjusted annualized rate (saar) and a chance even […] More

Japanese Central Bank Drops a Bombshell of a Surprise

January 29, 2016

The Bank of Japan adopted a negative interest rate after repeated officials comments from central bank officials earlier that they weren’t contemplating such. In response, Japanese share prices advanced 2.8% and the yen has fallen 2.2% against the dollar and 0.9% relative to the euro.  The 10-year Japanese JGB yield declined 12 basis point to […] More

Dollar and European Equities Firm after Yellen Clarification

September 25, 2015

Fed Chair Yellen in a speech at the University of Massachusetts repeated that an interest rate hike by yearend is likely and indicated that she personally favored starting gradual rate normalization by then.  Investors seem pleased with that clarification and reduction of policy uncertainty. Japanese core consumer prices fell 0.1% on year in August, returning […] More

Dollar and European Equities Firm after Yellen Clarification

September 25, 2015

Fed Chair Yellen in a speech at the University of Massachusetts repeated that an interest rate hike by yearend is likely and indicated that she personally favored starting gradual rate normalization by then.  Investors seem pleased with that clarification and reduction of policy uncertainty. Japanese core consumer prices fell 0.1% on year in August, returning […] More

Better Financial Market Tone Continues

August 27, 2015

The Kansas City Fed’s annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, WY begins today.  The topic of this year’s central banker conference is “Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy.”  While Chairperson Yellen will not be attending, Vice Chair Stanley Fisher’s speech on Saturday, the final day of the gathering, is the most eagerly awaited event.  Remarks […] More

Comment on U.S. GDP

July 30, 2015

The U.S. economy rebounded in the spring from a weather depressed first quarter.  At 2.3%, the annualized growth of real GDP was very close to market expectations, four times faster than the first-quarter pace, but hardly better than what’s come to be the economy’s average performance.  The six-year-long post-Great Recession upswing has produced an average […] More

IFO Monthly Report and a Setback in the Greek Talks

June 24, 2015

Yesterday’s proposal by Greek Prime Minister Tsipras was not accepted by all the Europeans.  News of this setback sent share prices down 3.8% in Greece and 0.9% in Germany, Spain and Italy.  Stocks fell also by 0.5% in France and Switzerland and by 0.1% in Great Britain.  The Greek fixed asset yield spread above Germany […] More

Remarks on the Weak 1Q U.S. GDP Data

April 29, 2015

Real GDP expanded just 0.2% last quarter, and nominal GDP edged up by a smaller 0.1% at an annualized rate.  Both results were below consensus. Weak first quarters have become an habitual occurrence, which makes sense unless you happen to still believe that talk of climate change is a myth.  Seven of the last nine […] More

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