U.S. GDP
Dollar Stages Moderate Rebound
December 21, 2018
Broad dollar gains overnight amount to 0.6% against the kiwi, 0.4% relative to the loonie and euro, 0.3% vis-a-vis the peso, Swiss franc, and yuan, 0.2% versus the Australian dollar and 0.1% relative to sterling. Dollar/yen is unbalanced. In the continuing follies that markets have come to expect from the U.S. government, Defense Secretary Mattis […] More
Awaiting Jay Powell’s Speech
November 28, 2018
Fed Chairman Powell delivers a speech before the economic club of NY later today. Such is attracting even more interest than might be expected because President Trump has just escalated his criticism of Powell, calling him a bigger problem than China. In other news today, U.S. GDP growth last quarter was confirmed at 3.5%, the […] More
U.S. GDP Report Deconstructed
October 26, 2018
Good News: Real GDP expanded by a somewhat greater-than-expected 3.5% between 2Q and 3Q, expressed at an annualized rate (SAAR). The two-quarter pace of 3.8% was the fastest since the middle two quarters of 2014, when a 5.0% pace was achieved. On-year growth of 3.0% was the most in 13 quarters and just 0.8 percentage […] More
Fresh Wave of Risk Aversion
October 26, 2018
Investors will get their first peak at U.S. third-quarter GDP in less than an hour. Growth likely decelerated from the 4.2% pace in the second quarter but still probably managed to be at 3.0% or a bit above. But markets are reacting most keenly to the Federal Reserve officials’ disregard of President Trump’s criticism of […] More
All Eyes on the Senate Judiciary Committee
September 27, 2018
The testimonies of Kavanaugh and Blassey Ford start at 10:00 EDT (14:00 GMT). This has been a busy day already from a central banking and data release standpoint. The dollar overnight firmed by 0.7% against the Swiss franc, 0.6% relative to the Aussie dollar, 0.5% vis-a-vis the euro and loonie, 0.3% against the kiwi, 0.2% […] More
Some weak European and Japanese Data
August 29, 2018
French GDP growth slowed to a 0.2% per quarter rate in the first half of 2018 from 0.7% per quarter in the second half of 2017. In the second quarter alone, personal consumption contracted for the first time since the summer of 2016. Imports advanced five times faster than exports, and net foreign demand exerted […] More
Plenty of News to Focus Upon
April 27, 2018
The meeting between the presidents of South Korea and North Korea agreed to end their multi-decade war and to deescalate nuclear armament. Share prices in the Pacific Rim climbed 1.3% in New Zealand, 1.0% in Hong Kong, and 0.7% in Japan, South Korea, India and Australia. British GDP growth slowed more than forecast last quarter, […] More
Fresh Data to Consider
February 28, 2018
In addition to yesterday’s testimony by Fed Chairman Powell, which if anything raised the odds of more than three interest rate hikes in 2018, investors today have a slew of data releases on this final day of February to consider. Thursday’s data release calendar is very heavy as well. The Pacific Rim picked up the […] More
Sharp Rise in Long-Term Interest Rates
November 29, 2017
Ten-year sovereign debt yields this Wednesday have climbed nine basis points in the U.K. and five basis points in the United States and Germany. The 10-year Japanese JGB yield bucked the trend and has dipped a basis point to 0.02%. Janet Yellen, the outgoing Fed Chair, delivered her final major congressional testimony, asserting that economic […] More
A Somewhat Corrective Wednesday in the Market
August 30, 2017
The dollar recovered, sovereign debt yields rose and so have European and Asian equities overnight. The dollar climbed 0.4% against the euro, 0.3% versus the yen, 0.2% vis-a-vis the loonie, Swissy, and kiwi, and 0.1% relative to the Australian dollar. The dollar has dipped 0.1% versus the yuan and peso and is unchanged against sterling. […] More
