U.S. GDP

Digesting the Debate and a Slew of Quarter-End Data

September 30, 2020

Last night’s U.S. presidential debate was violently repulsive and leaves an embarrassing after-taste. The dollar hasn’t reacted discernibly, however, with gains of 0.3% against the euro and Swiss franc and 0.2% relative to sterling, no net change relative to the Japanese yen, and dips of 0.1% vis-a-vis the loonie, Aussie dollar and yuan. There have […] More

Comment on U.S. GDP Last Quarter

January 30, 2020

The first estimate of U.S. real GDP growth in the final quarter of 2019 of 2.1% annualized compared to the third-quarter level matches quarterly growth last summer and marks the third straight quarter with growth at or very close to 2.0%. Fourth quarter-over-4Q growth was 2.3%. Calendar 2019 average growth equaled 2.3% as well, lowest […] More

Coronavirus Outbreak Tops Busy List of Developments for Markets to Process

January 30, 2020

Several central banks held their first policy reviews of 2020. Those in Chile and Great Britain left their interest rate structures unchanged at 1.75% and 0.75%, respectively. The National Bank of Ukraine implemented its sixth rate cut in nine months, a 150-basis point reduction to 11.0%. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka engineered its third […] More

More Smoke than Fire

December 20, 2019

A lot of economic data was released on the final day of the final meaningful week of 2019, but the market is settling into yearend mode and showed a muted reaction. The dollar firmed overnight by 0.3% against the euro and Swiss franc but slipped 0.3% relative to sterling. There were dollar upticks of 0.2% […] More

Markets Anticipating Another Fed Rate Cut

October 30, 2019

The dollar marked time overnight as investors await confirmation of further easing from the FOMC. Their expectation of a third 25-basis point reduction since July 31st of the federal funds target is thought by many to be accompanied by forward guidance indicating a predisposition to pause afterwards. The announcement at 18:00 GMT will be followed […] More

Some Optimism from Three Fronts

August 29, 2019

Investors continue to believe that the U.S. and China can work out some kind of truce in the trade war. It is also thought the resignation of the Scottish Conservative Party leader, Ruth Davidson, may impede¬†British Prime Minister Johnson’s ability to pull the U.K. out of the EU without any negotiated deal on October 31. […] More

Dollar Marking Time Ahead of G-20 Summit

June 27, 2019

There’s been little change¬† in the dollar, price of oil, or European equities overnight. The Group of Twenty summit in Osaka starts tomorrow. EU leaders will try again to pick the next ECB president by next week. Ten-year sovereign debt yields dipped a basis point in the United States, Germany and Japan. Asian stock markets […] More

Several Japanese Data Reported but Investors Marking Time Ahead of U.S. Figures

April 26, 2019

Shortly before the first release of U.S. first-quarter GDP, the dollar showed no net overnight change against the euro, loonie or sterling. There were 0.1% upticks relative to the yen, Swiss franc and peso, a 0.1% downtick vis-a-vis the yuan and drops of 0.5% against the kiwi and 0.3% versus the Australian dollar. European share […] More

U.S. GDP

February 28, 2019

U.S. real GDP expanded 2.6% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate last quarter, down from 3.4% in 3Q and 4.2% in the second quarter of 2018. Personal consumption and nonresidential investment accounted for all of the rise. Residential construction recorded a fourth straight contraction. Net exports exerted a smaller drag of 0.2 percentage points. Inventories […] More

No Deal Between U.S. and North Korea and a Whole Lot of Data Released

February 28, 2019

The summit between U.S. President Trump and North Korean President Kim ended prematurely without an agreement. Share prices in Asia lost 1.8% in South Korea, 1.3% in Indonesia, 1.2% in Singapore, 0.9% in Hong Kong, 0.8% in Japan but only 0.4% in China. In Europe, there’s been scant net movement in the German Dax or […] More

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