Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
September 19, 2014
This weekend, New York City will be the venue of the People’s Climate March in advance of a summit on what can be done to save the planet, a general election in New Zealand is planned, and G-20 finance ministers and central bankers will be meeting in Cairns, Australia. Japanese markets will be closed Tuesday […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
All Quiet on the Scottish Front
September 19, 2014
The referendum on Scottish independence was defeated by a 55-45% vote and in 28 of 32 constituencies. In relief, the British Ftse has risen 0.7%. Equities advanced 1.6% in Japan, 0.7% in China, 0.6% in Hong Kong, 0.5% in New Zealand, 0.4% in Indonesia and 0.3% in South Korea and Australia. The German Dax and […] More
Central Bank Watch
South African Reserve Bank
September 18, 2014
The statement released by Governor Marcus of the South African Reserve Bank outlines numerous economic imbalances. CPI inflation of 6.4% is hovering near the target ceiling, yet GDP growth, hurt by crippling labor strikes, is now expected to be just 1.5% this year. The current account deficit last quarter surpassed 6.2%, and the budget deficit […] More
Central Bank Watch
Swiss National Bank: Review Identifies a Considerable Deterioration of the Economic Outlook
September 18, 2014
The quarterly monetary policy review Revised projected 2014 growth to “slightly less than 1.5% from 2.0%, noting negative annualized growth of minus 0.2% last quarter. Opined that global recovery in coming quarters will be weaker than forecast previously and remains vulnerable to setbacks. Called the Swiss franc “still high” but did not change the 1.2000 […] More
Central Bank Watch
Norwegian Monetary Policy Unchanged
September 18, 2014
The Executive Board of Norges Bank left its key interest rate at 1.5%. This was the fifteenth consecutive meeting to decide that policy didn’t need changing, and at 1.5% such is just 25 basis points above the Great Recession low. Seven reductions between October 2008 and June 2009 had cut the interest rate to 1.25% […] More
Central Bank Watch
Central Bank of Malaysia Keeps 3.25% Monetary Policy Interest Rate
September 18, 2014
In a process toward policy rate normalization, five central bank rate hikes were engineered very gradually in March, May and July 2010, May 2011 and, most recently, July of this year. This week’s meeting, however, ended in a decision not to change the current stance and the release of a statement that calls the stance […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Many Balls in the Air
September 18, 2014
There is much for investors to watch this Thursday. A Scottish referendum on independence will determine the future of Great Britain and have implications far beyond the Commonwealth. The vote is considered too close to predict, although latest polls suggest a marginal edge toward rejections. Markets continue to react to yesterday’s FOMC hand-outs and press […] More
Central Bank Watch
Comments on FOMC Press Conference
September 17, 2014
Three documents were released. The FOMC statement was notable for two things. Policy guidance was not changed, and there were two dissenters (Richard Fisher as well as Charles Plosser). The FOMC majority continued the assertion that it “likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funs rate for a considerable […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Thailand Interest Rate Left Unchanged
September 17, 2014
For a fourth straight time, the Thai central bank policy interest rate was kept unchanged at 2.0%, and no adjustement seems nearby. The last one was a 25-basis point cut in March, which was the sixth such reduction since a peak of 3.5% between August 2011 and November 2011. After the latest meeting, officials released […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Checklist of Economic Fundamentals Supports a Buoyant Dollar
September 17, 2014
Currency analysts approach the task of forecasting by reviewing a checklist of economic vital signs, the so-called fundamentals. Likewise, when officials complain that their currency is either too strong or too weak, the argument is based on a grading system that considers around seven comparative measures of fundamental economic performance. The ratings involve inflation, short-term […] More
