Deeper Analysis
September and the Third Quarter in Figures
September 30, 2011
It’s been a month and quarter for the ages. Investors increasingly priced in a coming U.S. and European recession. All the dire warnings that long-term interest rates will soar because of deficit spending and ensuing inflation could not have been more wrong, yet the thinking behind such predictions continues to control the policy agenda in […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
September 30, 2011
Next week begins a new U.S. federal government fiscal year, the final calendar quarter of 2011, and the second half of Japan’s fiscal year. Central banks in Australia, Euroland, the U.K., Japan, Poland and Peru hold policy meetings next week. Germany will be closed Monday for Unity Day, and U.S. Treasury markets will close early […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
A Vicious Circle of Debt Deleveraging and Recession
September 30, 2011
A dangerous storm is brewing, and at its core is reinforcing debt and weak growth that can be found in advanced economies. Just over two years ago, these nations emerged from their worst business downturn since the 1930s. From peak to trough, real GDP fell 9.9% in Japan, almost 7% in Great Britain, and marginally […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Risk Trade Turned Off
September 30, 2011
New concerns have arisen about Greece and the EFSF enlargement scheme. Some believe Greece has only enough cash for the first half of October, and German officials continue to threaten no additional financial support without the imposition of more fiscal austerity in Greece. Germany’s Bundestag, the lower parliamentary body, approved greater EFSF powers by a […] More
