September and the Third Quarter in Figures
September 30, 2011
It’s been a month and quarter for the ages. Investors increasingly priced in a coming U.S. and European recession. All the dire warnings that long-term interest rates will soar because of deficit spending and ensuing inflation could not have been more wrong, yet the thinking behind such predictions continues to control the policy agenda in most advanced economies. Ten-year yields fell more than 90 basis points during the quarter in Canada, Britain, Germany and the United States. The German Dax plunged about 25% in the quarter, and all the other indices carried in this table fell by over 10%. Foreign exchange volatility was also very pronounced. In September, dollar/Swissie traded in a 19% high/low band between a Swissie high of 0.7708 per dollar and a low of 0.9182. With risk aversion shooting up to levels not seen since late 2008, the dollar advanced at least 10% in the month against the franc as well as the kiwi and Australian dollar and recorded gains of more than 7.0% against the loonie and euro. Commodities plunged in another sign that people are hunkering down for another recession. Gold dropped 11.4% in the latest month but still managed to climb some 8% on net from its midyear level. Oil prices declined 17% in the quarter.
| 10-Yr Yield | 09/30/11 | Chg vs End-Aug | Chg vs End-Jun |
| U.S. | 1.92% | -32 Basis Points | -124 Basis Points |
| Germany | 1.89% | -33 | -113 |
| Japan | 1.03% | -1 | -11 |
| U.K. | 2.43% | -9 | -95 |
| Canada | 2.15% | -25 | -96 |
| Switzerland | 0.96% | -18 | -75 |
| 3-month euros | Chg vs End-Aug | Chg vs End-Jun | |
| U.S. | 0.37% | +4 Basis Points | +12 Basis Points |
| Euroland | 1.55% | -11 | 0 |
| Japan | 0.19% | 0 | -1 |
| U.K. | 0.95% | +7 | +12 |
| Canada | 1.20% | +2 | +3 |
| Swiss | 0.02% | -16 | -16 |
| FX | Pct Chg in USD | Pct Chg in USD | |
| EUR/USD | 1.3386 | +7.4% | +8.3% |
| USD/JPY | 77.13 | +0.7% | -4.3% |
| USD/CHF | 0.9083 | +12.7% | +8.0% |
| GBP/USD | 1.5585 | +4.2% | +2.9% |
| AUD/USD | 0.9663 | +10.7% | +10.9% |
| NZD/USD | 0.7612 | +12.1% | +8.8% |
| USD/CAD | 1.0500 | +7.3% | +8.9% |
| USD/CNY | 6.3875 | +0.1% | -1.2% |
| Equities | Pct Change | Pct Change | |
| S&P 500 | 1131 | -7.2% | -14.4% |
| Nasdaq | 2415 | -6.4% | -12.9% |
| Djia | 10913 | -6.0% | -12.1% |
| Dax | 5502 | -4.9% | -25.4% |
| Nikkei | 8700 | -2.8% | -11.4% |
| Ftse | 5128 | -4.9% | -13.8% |
| Canada TSE | 11624 | -9.0% | -12.6% |
| Swiss SMI | 5532 | +0.1% | -10.6% |
| Commodities | Pct Change | Pct Change | |
| Oil, $ per brl | 79.20 | -10.8% | -17.0% |
| Gold, $ per oz | 1620.40 | -11.4% | +7.9% |
Copyright Larry Greenberg 2011. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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