Central Bank Watch
Mixed Messages from the Fed
March 15, 2011
Today’s FOMC Statement contained some new ideas, retained long-familiar points, acknowledged higher inflation and a firmer recovery, held to existing policy, produced at least one surprise for me, and was supported by a vote with no dissent. My biggest surprise was the lack of any allusion to Japan’s crisis. Not a single word about it […] More
Deeper Analysis
Treasury Data on International Capital Flows
March 15, 2011
On a monthly basis, the U.S. Treasury Department releases statistics for capital movements involving the United States vis-a-vis the rest of the world. These reports embody three different definitions of a net capital inflow, and each was smaller in January than in December or the fourth-quarter monthly pace. Among long-term flows, there was scant change […] More
Central Bank Watch
Decision Time at the FOMC
March 15, 2011
The crisis in Japan has changed what the FOMC needs to do immediately even if the most likely scenario of ending QE2 in June remains the chosen script. Foremost, U.S. monetary officials must do no harm to public psychology today. This is not a time to tinker with the language of its statement with an […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Beware the Ides of March: Very Dangerous Day Is Shaping Up
March 15, 2011
Japan is under a radiation alert, as more explosions and fire at a nuclear reactor lift risk of a meltdown. Radiation levels near Tokyo above normal. Bank of Japan support seen too timid for the circumstances. Only dollar/yen, off 0.3%, and JGBs (up a single basis point at 1.22%) remain comparatively stable. Fear spreading that […] More
