PMI-Services Again Favor U.S. Over Euro Area

July 6, 2009

PMIs U.S. Ezone   U.S. Ezone   Sum of
  Services Services Spread Mf’g Mf’g Spread Spreads
Feb 2008 49.7 52.3 -2.6 48.8 52.3 -3.5 -6.1
March 49.9 51.6 -1.7 49.0 52.0 -3.0 -4.7
April 51.9 52.0 -0.1 48.6 50.7 -2.1 -2.2
May 51.2 50.6 +0.6 49.3 50.6 -1.3 -0.7
June 48.8 49.1 -0.3 49.5 49.2 +0.3 0.0
July 49.6 48.3 +1.3 49.5 47.4 +2.1 +3.4
August 50.4 48.5 +1.9 49.3 47.6 +2.1 +4.0
Sept 50.0 48.4 1.6 43.4 45.0 -1.6 0.0
October 44.6 45.8 -1.2 38.7 41.1 -2.4 -3.6
November 37.4 42.5 -5.1 36.6 35.6 +1.0 -4.1
December 40.1 42.1 -2.0 32.9 33.9 -1.0 -3.0
Jan 2009 42.9 42.2 +0.7 35.6 34.4 +1.2 +1.9
Feb 41.6 39.2 +2.4 35.8 33.5 +2.3 +4.7
March 40.8 40.9 -0.1 36.3 33.9 +2.4 +2.3
April 43.7 43.8 -0.1 40.1 36.8 +3.3 +3.2
May 44.0 44.8 -0.8 42.8 40.7 +2.1 +1.3
June 47.0 44.7 +2.3 44.8 42.6 +2.2 +4.5

 

The U.S. non-manufacturing PMI reading rose three points in J
une to 47.0, best by more than two points since last September.  Euroland’s PMI slid a tenth in contrast, so the spread between the two indices swung to a 2.3 point advantage favoring the United States from a 0.8 points favoring the euro area in May.  The manufacturing spread also favored the United States and by a similar 2.2 points in June.  The sum of the two differentials depicted in the right-most column above was +4.5, America’s greatest advantage in four months and and 8.9-point improvement from a 4.1% combined spread favoring the euro area last November.  Within services, comparisons of new orders and jobs both contributed to the more advantageous relative U.S. position in June than in May.  All of the readings — manufacturing and non-manufacturing in both regions — were in the 40’s, connoting the persistence of declining activity as the first half of 2009 drew to a close.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2009.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.

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