British Growth
June 30, 2009
Guarded optimism has emerged that Britain may be one of the first economies to emerge from recession. The operative word ought to be guarded, not optimism. First some facts. Real GDP plunged 9.3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) in the first quarter (most in almost 51 years), 4.9% in the year to 1Q09 […] More
Central Bank Watch
National Bank of Romania Cuts Policy Rate By 50 Basis Points
June 30, 2009
In an easing move anticipated by many analysts, Romania’s central bank policy rate was reduced to 9.0% from 9.50%. Such was the second cut of 50 basis points this month but only the third drop of the cycle. The earlier cut in June was announced on the 5th, and a reduction of 25 basis points […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Overnight Developments Abroad: Lots of Data on Final Day of the Quarter
June 30, 2009
The dollar shows overnight declines of 0.6% against the Aussie dollar, 0.4% versus the Swiss franc, 0.3% against the euro and Swissy, and 0.2% against sterling and the yen. The buck has edged 0.1% lower against the kiwi. Asian stocks are mixed. While the Nikkei climbed 1.8%, stocks are down 2.6% in Vietnam, 2.0% in […] More
Currency Markets in the News
Higher Expected Inflation Needn't Be Self-Fulfilling
June 29, 2009
Harvard Professor Marty Feldstein, mentor to a generation of economists including Ben Bernanke, has an Op-Ed article in today’s Financial Times entitled “The Fed must reassure markets on inflation” in which he postulates that very high projected Federal deficits over the coming ten years are boosting expected inflation and are a likely major factor behind […] More
Currency Markets in the News
Euro Area Sentiment Improving But Still Very Low
June 29, 2009
European Commission June readings for economic sentiment in Euroland recorded a third consecutive improvement, which is the good news. The bad news is that such have still not recovered to cyclical lows of 1992 and has reversed only about a third of the deterioration that occurred between September 2008 and March 2009. Moreover, as the […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Overnight Developments Abroad: Chinese Official Comments Reassure Dollar Holders
June 29, 2009
The dollar is slightly firmer, with gains of 0.6% against the Swiss franc, 0.3% versus the euro, 0.2% against the yen and Australian dollar, 0.1% and relative to the Canadian dollar. Sterling is unchanged, and the kiwi has risen 0.2% against the U.S. currency. China’s central bank chief and an official from the State Administration […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week
June 26, 2009
Among four central bank meetings in the coming week, those in Romania and Indonesia have a decent chance of resulting in rate cuts, whereas no changes are likely from the European Central Bank of the Swedish Riksbank. The two cuplets are distinguished by the disparity between high existing rate levels in Romania (9.5%) and Indonesia […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Foreign Exchange Insights: June 26th
June 26, 2009
It’s been an uneventful summer for the dollar’ two main relationships so far. Net movement over the five weeks since the Memorial Day weekend amounts to a rise of 0.4% against the yen and a dip of 0.6% against the yen. EUR/USD is pivoting $1.40 with a fairly symmetric range this past week of 1.4138 […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Overnight Developments Abroad: Stocks Up and Dollar Down on Final Day of Week
June 26, 2009
The dollar has lost 0.8% against sterling, 0.7% against the Canadian dollar, 0.6% versus the euro and Swissy, 0.4% relative to the Australian dollar, and 0.2% against the yen. The dollar is steady against the kiwi after news that New Zealand GDP fell more than forecast in the first quarter. No chatter yet about Swiss […] More
Central Bank Watch
Reserve Bank of South Africa Keeps 7.5% Repo Rate in a Surprise
June 25, 2009
Even though a 100-basis point rate cut on May 28th had been at the top end of expectations, analysts had been primed for another drop in the repo rate today after earlier news of a 1.1% drop in South African producer prices last month that cut on-year PPI inflation from 2.9% in April to negative […] More
