Central Bank Watch
No Monetary Policy Change By Taiwan
June 25, 2009
As analysts anticipated, officials at Taiwan’s central bank left key interest rates unchanged, including the 1.25% discount rate. That rate was last reduced in mid-February. A statement released on the central bank’s website found the recession to be “abating” after a GDP plunge of 10.2% between 1Q08 and 1Q09. Inflation has dipped marginally under zero, […] More
Central Bank Watch
No Change in Czech Central Bank Rate of 1.50%
June 25, 2009
Most analysts were fooled by the Czech Central Bank’s split 4-1 decision not to cut its 2-week repo rate any further after today’s policy meeting. Earlier reductions had been implemented of 75 basis points on November 7, 50 basis points each on December 18 and February 6, and 25 bps each on August 8 and […] More
Swiss Monetary Officials Need to Be Taken Very Seriously
June 25, 2009
Policy makers at the Swiss National Bank hold just four policy meetings per year in the middle of the final month of each calendar quarter. In March, the target interest rate (three-month Swiss Libor) was lowered to 0.25%, as far as it can realistically go. But officials felt that doing that alone would not adequately […] More
Currency Markets in the News
Printed Press Coverage of FOMC Statement… ECB Steals the Show
June 25, 2009
Reporting today in the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal and New York Times stressed that Fed policymakers are in difficult circumstances, endeavoring to steer a balanced approach and retain sufficient flexibility to adapt to an uncertain future without creating undue surprise to market participants. Edmund Andrew’s entitled his NYT article “Fed Maintains Status Quo, Keeping […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Overnight Developments Abroad: IMF Warning on Ireland
June 25, 2009
The dollar mostly firmed in continuing post-FOMC trading. The Fed did not modify its bond purchase program and saw further progress toward end of recession. The greenback is up 0.7% against the yen, 0.6% versus sterling, 0.4% relative to the Canadian dollar, 0.3% against the kiwi, and 0.2% versus the Swiss franc. The Australian dollar […] More
Central Bank Watch
FOMC: Market Reaction
June 24, 2009
The FOMC statement contained no significant surprises. Officials seem comfortable with how the recession and financial market strains are winding down and predicted subdued inflation “for some time” but without the risk of deflation that had been cited in the previous April 29th statement. Today’s wording did not clarify the timing for the start of […] More
Central Bank Watch
Polish Central Bank Rates Cut by 25 Basis Points
June 24, 2009
In a move that met analyst expectations, the National Bank of Poland cut its various short-term interest rates by 25 basis points. This was the first cut since March 25, although reserve requirements had been sliced to 3% from 3.5% in May. The key reference rate drops to 3.5% and has in total been reduced […] More
Central Bank Watch
Vital Market Signs At Previous Meetings of the FOMC
June 24, 2009
EUR/$ $/JPY 10Y, % DJIA Oil, $ 06/30/04 1.2173 109.44 4.63 10396 37.95 06/30/05 1.2090 110.89 3.96 10370 57.00 06/29/06 1.2527 116.07 5.20 11077 73.41 06/28/07 1.3452 123.17 5.10 13456 69.82 08/07/07 1.3749 118.55 4.73 13510 72.27 09/18/07 1.3888 115.75 4.51 13475 81.42 10/31/07 1.4458 115.28 4.42 13873 93.59 12/11/07 1.4682 111.49 4.11 13645 […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
New Overnight Developments Abroad: OECD Upgrades Projected U.S. Growth
June 24, 2009
Investors await FOMC statement today around 18:15 GMT and also get U.S. data for new home sales, durable goods orders, and energy stocks. The dollar is unchanged against the yen, euro, and Swiss franc but has declined by 0.5-0.7% against sterling and commodity-sensitive currencies. Better tone in Asian stocks: Indonesia up 4.3%, Vietnam up 4.0%, […] More
U.S. Jobless Rate Headed For Post-1947 High
June 23, 2009
President Obama concedes that the jobless rate will probably crest above 10%. I believe that such will peak above 11.0%, and that would exceed the previous modern high of 10.8% in November and December of 1982. A double-dip recession in the early 1980’s ended in November of 1982. The synchronized timing of the turn in […] More
