Next Week

June 26, 2009

Among four central bank meetings in the coming week, those in Romania and Indonesia have a decent chance of resulting in rate cuts, whereas no changes are likely from the European Central Bank of the Swedish Riksbank.  The two cuplets are distinguished by the disparity between high existing rate levels in Romania (9.5%) and Indonesia (7%) and the low 1.0% and 0.5% rate levels of the ECB and Riksbank benchmarks.  The U.S. Independence Day holiday will be observed by the markets on Friday, July 3, and Canadian markets will close on Wednesday for Canada Day.  The third calendar quarter begins at mid-week.

There is an extremely heavy data schedule.  Many countries will see the release of Purchasing Manager Indices, including the United States, Euroland, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Britain, Norway, Sweden, South Africa, Switzerland, Japan, Singapore, Brazil and Mexico.

Other scheduled U.S. releases include the June employment report, ADP private employment, consumer confidence, regional PMI’s, factory orders, new motor vehicle sales, pending home sales, construction spending, the Case-Shiller house price index, the Dallas Fed index and the usual assortment of weekly figures for jobless claims, energy inventories, chain store sales, money and reserves.

Japan announces industrial production, retail sales, unemployment and employment, household spending and income, wage earnings, construction orders, housing starts, the Shoko Chukin small business sentiment index, and monetary base.  The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan business survey results also get published.

From the euro area arrives economic sentiment and its components of consumer and business confidence, M3 and credit growth, preliminary consumer prices, unemployment, producer prices and retail sales.  Germany reports its own labor statistics and retail sales figures ahead of the Ezone bloc.  France will release producer prices and housing starts.  Italy reports consumer and producer prices as well as budget figures.

Britain’s data slate covers mortgage lending and approvals, M4, the Halifax and Nationwide house price measures, consumer confidence, the quarterly current account and final GDP estimate from 1Q09, retail sales and the central bank’s quarterly survey of credit conditions. 

Investors also get to see Swedish retail sales and wages, Norwegian unemployment, credit and retail sales, and Swiss consumer prices and consumption indicator.  The central bank will release its latest monetary policy report.  Both the Polish and Hungarian current account figures get reported, and so do Turkish CPI, PPI, and GDP data.

Australia reports retail sales, private credit, trade, and building approvals.  New Zealand trade data, business sentiment and building permits are due.  Atypically for the busy week ahead, Canada reports just monthly GDP and producer prices.

Brazil releases trade figures and industrial output, while South Africa chips in with money and credit growth and its trades.

Quite a few Asian indicators arrive, including external accounts from Malyasia, Thailand, Indonesia, and India.  South Korea reports industrial production and consumer prices.

Several Fed officials but not Bernanke or Kohn are speaking.  On Thursday, ECB President Trichet holds court at his monthly press conference and no doubt will be quizzed about the large one-year refinancing tender done this past week.

Copyright Larry Greenberg 2009.  All rights reserved.  No secondary distribution without express permission.


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