Some Things for Currency Market Participants to Watch in 2016

January 5, 2016

Brazil, China and Russia This trio of emerging markets comprises three-fourths of the BRIC group.  Not long ago when each of these economies were performing well, the group was seen as the beneficiary in a gradual shift of economic and political influence at the expense of the Group of Seven advanced economies.  2015 was a […] More

Why Might the Dollar Uptrend Be Stalled?

July 21, 2015

On paper, prospects for dollar appreciation continue to look very sound.  Monetary policy cycles will be extremely disparate over the next two years between the United States on the one hand and the eurozone, Japan and emerging markets on the other.  Gold’s relentless slide suggests considerable continuing confidence in a dollar uptrend, especially in light […] More

Upside Dollar Potential

June 10, 2015

The dollar is in a corrective phase.  From the low in 2014 to this year’s high, the dollar advanced 33.8% against the euro, 26.2% against the Australian dollar, 25.7% relative to the kiwi, 24.9% vis-a-vis the yen, 22.1% on a trade-weighted basis, 21.3% versus the Canadian dollar and 18.0% against sterling.  Varying percentages of these […] More

Whipsawed Beyond All Recognition

May 5, 2015

The dollar is one of many financial market prices caught up in a period of intense oscillation.  Over the past five trading days, the DOW fell 1.6%, recovered 1.9%, and declined over 1.2%.  After declining from 0.39% on March 6 to 0.07% on April 20, the 10-year German bund yield rebounded to 0.51% today.  The […] More

Dollar Paused in Troubling Times

April 22, 2015

In spite of disappointing U.S. growth for a second straight quarter, dollar demand sizzled in January-March.  Trading has been consolidating this month, and not merely pausing after such an upward spurt or even because of some convergence of macroeconomic trends between the United States and Europan.  These are disturbing times.  Each day, more bad news […] More

Dollar Recovery in a Lull

April 16, 2015

Coming into April, the dollar had experienced a rally of historic proportions, topped off by advances of more than 9.0% in the first quarter against the euro, yen, Swissie and both Canadian and Australian dollars.  In the current month, however, upward dollar momentum has slowed substantially for a variety of reasons. A broad spectrum of […] More

Is the Dollar Uptrend Over or Merely in a Pause?

April 9, 2015

It’s difficult to gauge momentum behind the dollar’s uptrend by focusing upon bilateral currency relationships.  Market-determined currencies like the euro, yen, Swissie, sterling and Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars have not moved in lockstep since the dollar’s current rally began about eleven months ago, nor have the cumulative swings in the dollar against each […] More

An Abbreviated Weekly Dollar Essay

March 4, 2015

Snow shoveling duty will limit the length of the dollar essay this week to a couple of developments worth watching. The first is explained in an earlier posting today on Currency Thoughts that documents a very sharp narrowing of the U.S. and eurozone purchasing managers indices between November 2014 and last month.  This convergence in both […] More

More Good News Than Bad News

November 18, 2014

Japanese Prime Minister Abe has delayed imposition of the planned consumption tax by 18 months to April 2018 and dissolved parliament effective this Friday in preparation for a snap lower house election presumably on December 21.  Abe’s LDP/Komeito coalition was elected in December 2012 to a four-year term.  An election far ahead of schedule invites […] More

Weaker Yen and Gold, Firmer Dollar, and Soft Data

November 14, 2014

The yen dropped 0.6% against the dollar to a new multi-year low of 116.51 and fell also to a 10-month low of 145.09 per euro. The U.S. currency otherwise advanced 0.3% against the euro, Australian dollar and sterling, 0.2% versus the Swiss franc and kiwi and 0.1% relative to the yuan. The Swiss currency continues […] More