German PPI
Yesterday’s Rebound in Sovereign Debt Yields Trimmed
August 20, 2019
Ten-year sovereign debt yields slipped Tuesday by five basis points in Germany and the United States, three bps in Great Britain and a basis point in Japan. Yields had dropped very sharply earlier in August but staged a rebound yesterday. Without government stimulus, investors fear a continuing global growth slowdown and possibly even a recession. […] More
NY Fed President Moves Markets Unwittingly
July 19, 2019
John Williams, President of the NY Fed and a permanent member of the FOMC, gave an academic speech asserting that it’s best for central banks to respond quickly in the face of slower economic growth. Investors took his comment as the clearest sign yet that the federal funds rate will be cut at the FOMC […] More
Much To Watch Just before the Holiday
April 18, 2019
The Good Friday/Easter holiday break is ordinarily one of the quietest times for foreign exchange, but investors this year have a great deal of news to absorb before getting away: the promised redacted Mueller Report, preliminary April purchasing manager survey results, British retail sales, Australian labor statistics, German producer prices, Swiss trade, and a central […] More
Financial Market News Cycle Headed by FOMC, Brexit, and U.S./Sino Trade Talks
March 20, 2019
Today’s FOMC announcement at 14:00 EDT (18:00 GMT) will be accompanied by updated forecasts and followed at 14:30 by Chairman Powell’s press conference. Analysts look for scaled-back growth and inflation forecasts, fewer interest rate hikes this year than indicated earlier, and a stop in quantitative tightening. British Prime Minister May is asking for a 3-month […] More
Awaiting FOMC Minutes and Assessing Data Out Earlier Today
February 20, 2019
The FOMC meeting in late January looms as an important inflection point in U.S. monetary policy. The statement released at that time deleted forward guidance that further increases in the target interest rate would be consistent with achieving the Fed’s mandates, instead spoke of patience while determining any future moves, and hinted at changes in […] More
Dollar Softer Ahead of FOMC Decision and After U.S. Current Account Release
December 19, 2018
Despite weaker data and pressure from Trump, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to announce the fourth rate hike of 2018 later today but to couch such within more accommodative forward guidance regarding likely policy in 2019. The U.S. current account deficit jumped to $124.8 billion in the third quarter from $101.2 billion in […] More
Intensifying Global Move Out of Riskier Assets
October 23, 2018
Investors are getting squeamish for political and economic reasons. Turkish President Erdogan again asserted that the Saudi killing of Khashoggi was premeditated. U.S. opinion polls suggest that with just 2 weeks left before the mid-term election, the pendulum is swinging back toward the Republicans, suggesting Trump may continue to control all branches of government. The […] More
Awaiting U.S. Jobs Report and the Kavanaugh Vote and Watching Sino-U.S. Trade Dispute Intensify
October 5, 2018
Wednesday’s ADP estimate of private employment growth and very low jobless insurance claims suggest a very large jump in U.S. non-farm payroll jobs. The Labor Dept announces the figure at 08:30 EDT. A cloture procedural vote on the Kavanaugh debate mid-day should set the stage for a a full senate confirmation vote Saturday. Best guess […] More
Few Data Releases, Firmer Share Prices and Metals, Steady Oil and Sovereign Debt Yields
August 20, 2018
Dollar/yen is unchanged. The dollar is down 0.3% against the yuan but has risen 0.3% against the euro, 0.2% relative to the Australian dollar, kiwi, and Mexican peso, and 0.1% versus the Swiss franc, loonie and sterling. Equities climbed Monday by 1.9% in Indonesia, 1.5% in Hong Kong, 1.1% in South Korea, 0.9% in India […] More
Trump’s Latest Comment on Tariffs Stirs Up Fresh Market Anxiety
July 20, 2018
Stocks had performed decently in the Pacific Rim, rising overnight by 2.1% in China, 1.0% in Hong Kong, 0.4% in Australia and 0.9% in Taiwan. The Japanese Nikkei had been an exception, drifting down 0.3%. In an interview with CNBC, President Trump signaled a willingness to impose tariffs on China equal to the sum of […] More
