Fed tapering

A Few Thoughts with Year-End Approaching

December 14, 2021

Historic Yearend Weakness of Dollar Against Europe’s Dominant Currency: This yearend tendency was very pronounced during the early days of flexible dollar rates following the March 1973 abandonment of fixed parities. Between mid-December and end-December from 1974 through 1987, the dollar recorded a net gain against the Deutsche mark only in 1984, while depreciating in […] More

Can the Global Economy Handle Fed Tapering?

January 30, 2014

Being in unchartered waters, that’s a matter that remains to be answered in the months ahead.  Given the high level of uncertainty, it’s not surprising for the investment community to feel uneasy.  Sovereign debt markets shuddered at the first whiff of tapering plans late last spring, and emerging markets have been battered lately now that […] More

After the Taper and Before the GDP Release

January 30, 2014

The Federal Reserve reduced its QE3 stimulus for a second time on Wednesday, and now investors await today’s release of 4Q U.S. GDP data as well as weekly jobless insurance claims and monthly pending home sales. Many overseas economic statistics were also released.  China’s five-day-long Lunar New Year celebration begins tonight.  Several other Asian markets […] More

The Movement of Euro/Yen

December 5, 2013

Yen weakness and euro resilience have coexisted for the past sixteen months.  From a low of 94.075 yen per euro in late July 2012 to a high this week of 140.025, the euro soared 49% against the Japanese currency, rounding slightly up to the nearest whole number.  With hindsight, the trigger for the turning point […] More

Three More U.S. Data Releases

August 16, 2013

The housing and labor productivity reports pose no impediment to apparent FOMC plans to rein back asset purchases as soon as the September policy meeting.  Housing starts bounced 5.9% in July and were 20.9% higher than a year earlier, results that were marginally better than forecast.  Building permits also climbed 2.7%, auguring a continuing uptrend […] More