Euroland PMI
Risk On Mood Continuing
November 4, 2019
Friday saw share prices rally on trade optimism and the aversion thus far of a hard Brexit. Subsequent official comments from U.S. and Chinese officials did not dash investor hopes, and Euroland PMI data suggest that the downturn in manufacturing did not intensify last month. Japanese markets were closed today for the Culture Day holiday. […] More
Pessimistic Mood in the Marketplace
May 23, 2019
A protracted U.S.-Sino trade war looks increasingly unavoidable. No light can be seen at the end of the Brexit tunnel, and paralyzing tensions between the Trump White House and Congressional Democrats keep intensifying. Although a preliminary estimate that German GDP accelerated to 0.4% last quarter, the May IFO Institute index of Germany’s business climate produced […] More
A Fresh Wave of Risk Aversion
March 22, 2019
There’s been a big move into safe assets, reflecting three developments since Wednesday: The Fed’s decision was more dovish than expected, putting interest rate normalization on hold for all of 2019 and ending the balance sheet rundown after September. EU leaders put Britain on a short leash to decide on its Brexit plan. While March […] More
Weak Data Intensify Investor Flight from Risky Assets
December 14, 2018
Equities fell 2.0% in Japan, 1.9% in Hong Kong, 1.5% in China, 1.3% in New Zealand and South Korea, 1.1% in Australia and Singapore, and 0.9% in Taiwan. Share prices are also down 1.0% in the U.S. and Switzerland, 0.8% in France, 0.7% in Italy, and 0.6% in Canada and Germany. The flight to safety […] More
Decision Day in America
November 6, 2018
Market behavior today has been unremarkable, as investors around the world wait to see which vision of America has prevailed. The dollar has dipped 0.1-0.2% against the euro, Swiss franc, yuan, and Canadian, Aussie and New Zealand dollars. there’s been a 0.3% drop against the peso and sterling but a 0.1% uptick relative to the […] More
Three-Pronged Blow to European Confidence
May 23, 2018
Italy is poised to get a populist, anti-euro, anti-austerity, and pro-Russia governing coalition. Being the third largest economy to use the euro, this development poses an existential risk to the common European currency that is far greater than the debt problems of Greece. Ten-year sovereign debt yields rose 10 basis points today in Italy in […] More
Some Weaker-Than-Expected European Data
February 21, 2018
Preliminary February purchasing manager survey estimates from the euro area and the latest British labor statistics were softer than forecast. The next significant market-moving event will be the release of FOMC minutes at 19:00 GMT today. The dollar rose 0.4% against the Aussie dollar and sterling, 0.2% relative to the loonie and 0.1% versus the […] More
International Tensions Over Trade Deepen
January 24, 2018
Former U.S. Secretary of Treasurer Robert Rubin famously said in 1995 that a “strong dollar is in the best interest of the United States” because it promotes price stability, lowers interest rates, and attracts productive foreign capital. That thinking went on to characterize U.S. policy for more than 20 years until the election of President […] More
Wait-and-See Mode
October 24, 2017
With much yet to be learned, investors seem to be of the view that on this day of a thin data release calendar that it’s best to wait and see Whom Trump picks to be the next Fed Chair. The details of ECB quantitative stimulus going forward into 2018 Whether the Catalonia crisis ends peacefully […] More
Fresh Concern about North Korea and Other Stuff to Watch
September 22, 2017
Escalated saber-rattling between North Korea and the United States drove the dollar lower overnight. The greenback lost 0.6% against the peso, 0.5% versus the yen, loonie and Aussie currency, 0.3% vis-a-vis the euro and 0.2% against the kiwi and Swiss franc. The yuan is steady, and sterling dipped 0.1%. General elections will be held this […] More
