New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Suspected Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention
April 29, 2024
The yen initially plunged overnight to as low as 160.3 per dollar, but suspected foreign currency sales by the Japanese government yanked it back to 156.3 for a net gain of 1.2% from Friday’s closing level. Although not surprised, investors had been surprised Friday when the Bank of Japan chose not to raise interest rates […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: April 27-May 3, 2024
April 26, 2024
Central Banks: America’s Federal Reserve heads a group of scheduled monetary policy reviews that also includes central banks in the also includes those in the Czech Republic, Norway and Armenia. The FOMC will not be updating forecast at this meeting, but Chairman Powell will be holding a press conference Wednesday afternoon following the rate announcement. […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Weak Yen, Better-Than-Expected Tech Earnings, and Bracing for U.S. PCE Data
April 26, 2024
The yen is currently trading near its overnight low of 156.86 per dollar, a trough not experienced since May 1990. The Bank of Japan’s Board meeting failed to raise interest rates further, kept planned monthly JGB purchases at around 6 trillion yen and failed to clarify a possible timetable for additional monetary policy normalization. Adding […] More
Central Bank Watch
Rapid-Fire Interest Rate Cuts Continue in Hyperinflationary Argentina
April 25, 2024
The Central Bank of Argentina’s policy interest rate was at 126% when President Milei assumed office last December 10th, promising a draconian tightening of fiscal policy. The rate was lowered to 100% within three days, cut by 20 percentage points three months later, another 10 percentage points two weeks ago. Then today came word of […] More
Central Bank Watch
Ukraine’s Central Bank Rate cut to 13.5% from 14.5%
April 25, 2024
The National Bank of Ukraine‘s policy interest rate was cut to 13.5% from 14.5%, having previously been reduced by 50 basis points in March and 10 percentage points in the second half of 2023. From June 2022 to July 2023, the rate had been held at 25.0%. A statement from the NBU explained that today’s […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
An Uneasy Mood
April 25, 2024
U.S. stock futures were down 0.5-1.0% just ahead of the release of U.S. first-quarter GDP. The data were expected to show strong enough and persistent demand to make Federal Reserve officials hesitant to cut interest rates. Elsewhere, a two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan began today, which while not expected to result in a […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Tech Stock Rally, Better German Economic News, and a Surprise Indonesian Central Bank Rate Hike
April 24, 2024
A recent concern had been that delayed Fed easing would particularly hurt coming earnings in the tech sector, but first quarter earnings have exceeded expectations. Tesla’s share price leaped over 10% in after-hours trading yesterday, and the Nasdaq futures shows a 0.7% overnight advance at this moment. Asian equities closed up 2.4% in Japan, 2.0% […] More
Larry's Blog
Ominous Yankee Development
April 23, 2024
After 23 games, the N.Y. Yankees have fallen out of first place in their division for the first time. It’s still early times, with roughly seven-eighths of the regular season yet to be played, and the team’s overall 15-8 record is more than respectable. The pitching staff is outperforming expectations and is one of only […] More
Central Bank Watch
A Seventh Straight Hungarian Central Bank Interest Rate Cut
April 23, 2024
The Central Bank of Hungary’s base rate has been lowered 50 basis points to 7.75% in a continuing normalization of monetary policy. The latest and expected reduction brings the cumulative decreases to 300 basis points since end-2024 and 525 basis points since October. Consumer price inflation in Hungary has receded from as much as 25.7% […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Most April Purchasing Manager Surveys Brighter Than Forecast
April 23, 2024
Net overnight movements in the dollar were marginal. Ten-year sovereign debt yields increased six basis points in the U.K., five basis points in Italy and by four basis points in the United States, Germany, France and Spain. Continuing disappointment at the Chinese government’s macroeconomic stimulus was reflected in an additional 0.7% drop in the Shanghai […] More
