Author Archive

Deeper Analysis

March and First Quarter 2021 in Figures

April 1, 2021

None of central banks below changed policy interest rates during the first quarter, but 10-year sovereign debt yield recorded sharp advances. Favorable U.S. long-term interest rate differentials became even more so during March. In spite of rising long-term bond yields, equities experienced gain last quarter including in March. The U.S. and Canadian dollars strengthened last […] More

Deeper Analysis

U.S. and Euroland Manufacturing PMI Spread Shrunk 0.7 points to 2.2 Last Month

April 1, 2021

Manufacturing operating conditions improved last month in both Euroland and the United States. The IHS-compiled euro area purchasing managers index jumped 4.6 points to a record high of 62.5. Record highs above 60.0 were reached in Germany, Austria and the Netherlands, and the indices of Spain, Ireland, France, and Italy ranged upwards from 56.9 to […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

No Fooling: Today’s Economic Data Show Improvement but Covid Cases on the Rise Too

April 1, 2021

On this opening day of April, the dollar is unchanged against the yen, sterling and New Zealand dollar. The greenback has dipped 0.1% versus the euro and fallen 0.8% against the Turkish lira and 0.5% vis-a-vis the Mexican peso, but the dollar also has risen 0.3% against the Chinese yuan and Canadian dollar, 0.2% versus […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Quarter-End, a Flood of Reported Data, and an Eagerly Awaited Speech by Biden on His Infrastructure Plans

March 31, 2021

The dollar is trading modestly lower (e.g. -0.1% on the DXY weighted index) on this final day of the first quarter. In overnight equity market action, share prices climbed almost 1% in Australia and New Zealand but have slipped in Asia and, to a lesser degree, in Europe. The S&P 500 and DJIA futures indices […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Another Fine Daily Session for the Dollar

March 30, 2021

The dollar advanced 0.3% overnight on a weighted basis to a 4-5 month high. The Turkish lira took one of the largest hits; at an intraday low of 8.4595 per dollar, the lira had lost 3% but subsequently cut that slide in half. Against other currencies today, the dollar has risen 0.5% against the yen,  […] More

Deeper Analysis

Does Aggressive U.S. Pandemic Relief Risk an Unacceptably Big Future Inflation Problem?

March 29, 2021

Economists are divided on this question. Although more feel any inflationary fallout will be either temporary or manageable, some big names in the field like former Treasury Secretary Summers believe that the combination of prolonged very stimulative monetary policy, the CARES Act, subsequent government relief packages, and the Biden Administration’s fiscal plans to rebuild infrastructure […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

U.S. Stock Futures Down but Dollar Marginally Stronger

March 29, 2021

Few significant developments abroad have been reported this Monday. The biggest story, associated with a bank-intensive drop in U.S. equity futures, has been the the suspected large losses just before the weekend of the Archegus hedge fund, which was believed responsible for some heavy block selling on Friday. The week ahead will be shortened by […] More

Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week

Next Week’s Menu: March 27 – April 2, 2021

March 26, 2021

Central Banks: Chilean monetary policy will be reviewed in the coming week, and the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey of corporate conditions and expectations will be published. Holidays and Special Events: Many countries will be closed for Good Friday on April 2 including the United States, U.K., key market centers in Continental Europe, Australia, […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Dollar Ending Week on an Up-Note But Euro Steady

March 26, 2021

The dollar overnight appreciated another 0.35% on a trade weighted basis, but strength wasn’t even this time. The dollar rose 0.6% against the yen and 1.0% relative to the Turkish lira. The key EUR/USD relationship is unchanged, and the greenback has slipped 0.4% versus the New Zealand and Australian dollars, 0.3% vis-a-vis the Canadian dollar […] More

New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update

Differentiated Growth and Covid Prospects According to Efficiency of Vaccine Roll-Outs

March 25, 2021

The dollar has been taking its cue lately from vaccine news. The United States has handled the roll-out much better the Europe. Britain had been getting vaccinated at a good clip, too, but now faces a possible EU ban of vaccine exports to the U.K.. Japan’s Covid spread has also picked up lately. The proliferation […] More

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