Deeper Analysis
How the U.S. Economy Performed During Trump 1.0 and Biden’s Four Years
February 11, 2025
Voter opinion poll responses during last year’s presidential election repeatedly listed the “economy” at or near the top of people’s priorities. What they really meant by economy was inflation, but there are several other parameters that comprise a country’s economic performance. U.S. real GDP growth had expanded at a 1.85% per annum pace during the […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Sharp Increase of Euroland Long-Term Interest Rates
February 11, 2025
With 2.5 hours remaining before Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, a scarcity of meaningful data releases today, and Japan closed for National Foundation Day, investors continue to dwell on the inflationary implications of U.S. tariff hikes and the inevitable retaliatory responses from other governments. As threatened, Trump signed an executive order […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Looking Ahead to Rising U.S. Tariffs, Chairman Powell’s Congressional Testimony and a Round of U.S. Price Data
February 10, 2025
(205) President Trump will reportedly be announcing tariff hikes on multiple days this week, starting today with a likely 25% levy on all imports of steel and aluminum. Consistent with previous positive dollar reactions to threatened or actual rising tariffs, the U.S. currency appreciated overnight by 0.4% against the loonie, 0.3% relative to the Chinese […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: February 8-14, 2025
February 7, 2025
Central Banks: Fed Chairman presents his semi-annual congressional testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Bank of England Governor Bailey also have speaking engagements in the period. Central Bank monetary policy reviews are scheduled in Russia, Romania, Serbia, Peru and the Philippines. […] More
Central Bank Watch
First Indian Interest Rate Cut of the Cycle
February 7, 2025
The Reserve Bank of India‘s Monetary Policy Committee enacted its first repo rate change since February 2023, a 25-basis point cut to 6.25%. Inflation has declined. Supported by a favorable outlook on food and continuing transmission of past monetary policy actions, it is expected to further moderate in 2025-26, gradually aligning with the target. The […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Awaiting U.S. Labor Market Figures for January
February 7, 2025
The dollar is standing firm ahead of this morning’s release by the Labor Dept of last month’s jobless rate, growth in employment, and wage inflation. The greenback rose overnight by 0.3% against the yen and Swissy, 0.2% versus the euro and loonie, and 0.1% relative to the Australian and New Zealand currencies. Sterling is unchanged. […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Mexico Doubles Size of Incremental Interest Rate-Cutting Cycle that Began Six Months Ago
February 6, 2025
Six months passed after Mexican consumer price inflation peaked at 8.7% in September 2022 before the Bank of Mexico’s overnight interbank interest rate reached its highest level of restraint. That rate was then left at 11.25% for a full year from March 2023 until an initial 25-basis point cut in March 2024. After then making […] More
Central Bank Watch
Czech Interest Rate Cut
February 6, 2025
The Czech National Bank‘s two-week repo rate’s 25-basis point cut to 3.75% today is the fourth such move since August after 225 basis points of reduction between December 2023 and the middle of last year. A peak of 7.0% had been maintained for a year and a half. Czech CPI inflation, partly in response, fell […] More
Central Bank Watch
British Rate Cut Motivated By Soft Growth
February 6, 2025
The Bank of England’s rate cut to 4.5% from 4.75% was primarily motivated by weaker British economic activity than central bank officials had been assuming. GDP growth over the four quarters ending in the current one is projected to be a mere 0.4%, prompting a halving of the projected 2025 growth rate to just 0.75%. […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Contrasting European and U.S. Data Trends Support Dollar
February 6, 2025
Compared to Wednesday closing levels, the dollar shortly before the opening of U.S. equity markets had strengthened by a further 0.4% against the euro, Aussie dollar and even sterling despite an as-expected announced 25-basis point cut in the Bank of England’s policy interest rate. The Czech National Bank’s key rate also was sliced by 25 […] More
