New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Superdollar Rises Again but This Week’s Bear Market Rally in Stocks Appears Out of Steam
October 19, 2022
The dollar climbed overnight by 0.9% against the euro and Swiss franc, 0.8% relative to sterling, 0.5% versus the Australian dollar, and 0.4% vis-a-vis the offshore Chinese yuan and the Canadian and New Zealand dollars. The weighted DXY dollar index is 0.8% higher. Treasury-compiled capital flow data reported late Tuesday revealed that a net $275.6 […] More
Deeper Analysis
Setting the Record Straight about U.S. Economic Performances Under Different Presidential Administrations
October 18, 2022
The results of a recent NYT/Sienna opinion poll produced the eye-catching result that although “most voters say U.S. democracy is under threat,” that concern is being eclipsed by dissatisfaction with the economy’s direction, and a majority would be willing to see Republicans control the Congress. The performance of the U.S. economy since 1961 certainly does […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Equity Rebound Extended and Dollar Up Somewhat Too
October 18, 2022
With China’s 20th National Congress still ongoing, officials there elected to delay today’s scheduled release of GDP, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment and fixed asset investment. Investors await U.S. industrial production and the National Association of Homebuilders’ housing index, but otherwise it’s been another light day from a data release standpoint. Appetite for risk was […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Dollar and Sovereign Debt Yields Down; Equities and Bitcoin Rebound
October 17, 2022
Investors are hopeful that the continuing parade of third-quarter earnings show firms so far coping reasonably well with rising interest rates. The mood of financial markets got an additional boost from a near complete about-face in British fiscal plans. U.S. stock futures have risen 1-1.5% to start the week. European equity markets show gains so […] More
Larry's Blog
Three Takeaways from MLB Divisional Series So Far
October 16, 2022
Prior to this year, only one post-season major league baseball game had gone past the 11th inning with no runs scored by either team. Then last week the longest such game occurred in the wild card round when the Cleveland Indians beat the Tampa Bay Rays 1-0 in 15 innings. Just a week later, that […] More
Foreign Exchange Insights and Next Week
Next Week’s Menu: October 15 – 21, 2022
October 14, 2022
Central Banks: Monetary policies will be reviewed in Ukraine, Turkey, Indonesia and China. The Fed Beige Book of U.S. regional economic conditions gets published on Wednesday, and Bullard, Cook, Bowman, Williams and Jefferson are some of the Fed officials speaking publicly during the period. Lane and Guidos of the European Central Bank also will be […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Mulling More Price Data and Corporate Earnings
October 14, 2022
Bolstered primarily by food price pressure, Chinese consumer price inflation accelerated 0.3 percentage points in September to a 29-month high of 2.8%. At the same time, producer price inflation in China cooled further to a 20-month low of 0.9% versus 10.7% in September 2021. Polish CPI inflation of 17.2% last month was its highest level […] More
Deeper Analysis
Rampant Inflation Worries Not Overstated
October 13, 2022
Financial markets again reacted very fearfully to a U.S. consumer price report. The 8.2% 12-month rate of increase in the total CPI was in fact down from 8.3% in August, 8.5% in July, and this year’s high of 9.1% in June. Core consumer price inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy items, did go […] More
Central Bank Watch
Bank of Korea’s Base Rate Increased by 50 Basis Points
October 13, 2022
the Bank of Korea raised its base rate by 50 basis points to 3.0%. The size of that hike is double those of the prior seven increases of 25 basis points that began in August 2021. The vote behind today’s action was 5-2, with two dissents favoring another 25 basis point increase. Officials are sensitive […] More
New Overnight Developments Abroad - Daily Update
Waiting for U.S. CPI Data on Otherwise Light Load of Released Indicators
October 13, 2022
Equities fell sharply in Asia but are modestly higher in Europe and U.S. futures trading. Analysts expect today’s monthly release of U.S. consumer price figures to show a dip in overall inflation but higher underlying price pressure during September. The dollar overnight lost 0.4% against sterling and 0.3% versus the euro and measured by the […] More
