Mulling More Price Data and Corporate Earnings
October 14, 2022
Bolstered primarily by food price pressure, Chinese consumer price inflation accelerated 0.3 percentage points in September to a 29-month high of 2.8%. At the same time, producer price inflation in China cooled further to a 20-month low of 0.9% versus 10.7% in September 2021.
Polish CPI inflation of 17.2% last month was its highest level in 26 years and up from 5.9% in September 2021.
Senegalese and Croatian consumer price inflation rose to record highs last month of 11.9% and 12.8% from 3.0% and 3.3% in September 2021.
Finnish CPI inflation jumped half a percentage point in September to a 461-month high of 8.1%. The inflation rate a year earlier was only 2.5%.
Azerbaijani CPI inflation increased by 1.4 percentage points to 15.6% in September.
French consumer prices fell on month by 0.6% in September versus -0.5% reported initially, but the 12-month rate of increased was unrevised at a 4-month low of 5.6%. It was 2.2% in September 2021.
Spanish consumer prices were likewise revised downward by 0.1 percentage point to a 0.7% monthly drop and a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, which was down from a 10.8% 37-year high in July but up from 4.0% in September 2021.
Slovakian CPI inflation of 14.2% last month was up from 14.0% in August and 4.6% a year earlier.
South Korean import prices were 24.1% higher in September than in the same month a year earlier.
German wholesale prices leaped 1.6% on month in September. The 19.9% year-on-year increase was the most since June but down from a record high 23.8% in May.
Wholesale price inflation in India receded more sharply than forecast in September to a one-year low of 10.7%. Between September 2021 and last month, the food component accelerated from 1.1% to 11.0%, but wholesale price inflation for manufacturing goods fell to 6.3% from 11.4%.
In financial market action overnight, the weighted DXY dollar index climbed 0.7%, led by a 1.2% advance against sterling and rises of 0.6% versus the euro and 0.4% relative to the yen.
Asian equity markets closed today up 3.3% in Japan, 2.5% in Taiwan, 2.3% in South Korea, 1.8% in China, and 1.2% in Hong Kong. Major European markets have risen somewhat more than 1.0% thus far. But U.S. share prices, which scored big gains Thursday, only show modest movement head of the release of U.S. import price and retail sales data.
The ten-year British gilt yield dropped 20 basis points and reports that the Truss government is considering a modification of its fiscal spending plans. Comparable German bund and U.S. Treasury yields are down 8 and 6 basis points, but the Japanese JGB is unchanged.
The price of Bitcoin rose 2.2% overnight, but those of WTI oil and gold fell by 1.4% and 0.9%.
Monetary policy in Singapore, which is framed around an exchange rate target range, has been tightened further. Last January, the slope of the Singapore dollar trading corridor was steepened, but the midpoint was left unchanged. In April, the slope was steepened again, and that time the range midpoint was lifted to reflect current market conditions. Another reset to a stronger level was engineered in July, and today officials at the Monetary Authority of Singapore announced yet another midpoint reset while leaving the band width and slope unchanged. CPI inflation in Singapore rose from 2.4% in August 2021 to 7.5%, a 170-month high, one year later. Core inflation is not expected to drop until next spring.
Just In: Although down 1.2%, the monthly drop in U.S. import prices was only marginally more than analysts were anticipating, and their 12-month rate of increase of 6.0% remains higher than desired. Prices for imported fuel matched August’s 7.5% monthly plunge, and non-fuel import prices (-0.4%) recorded a fifth straight month-on-month decline.
U.S. retail sales last month recorded no growth, underperforming consensus expectations. Nevertheless, retail sales for the whole third quarter went up 0.6% compared to 2Q and by 9.2% from the third quarter of 2021. Fed officials seek a larger slowdown in consumer expenditures.
In other data news this Friday, Germany’s current account surplus shrank a a mere EUR 616 million in August from EUR 17 billion a year earlier. The January-August EUR 81 billion surplus was just 46% as wide as that experienced a year earlier.
Japanese M2 money posted on-year growth of 3.4% in the third quarter, similar to 3.4% in the first half of 2022 but down from 6.4% in full-2021.
New Zealand’s manufacturing purchasing managers index fell from a one-year high of 54.8 in August to a 2-month low of 52.0 in September.
Copyright 2022, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: China CPI and PPI, German WPI and current account, Monetary Authority of Singapore tightens, U.S. import prices and retail sales